Should You Start a Business During a Recession or General Uncertainty?

When longtime friends Shelton Steele and Joe Balcken started thinking about opening an urban cabin campground that matched the outdoor personality of Asheville, North Carolina, the timing may not have seemed ideal.

“Our business incubation period was Covid, so there couldn’t have been a more unpredictable period in life,” Steele told Business Insider.

Still, they moved forward with their vision of building 16 tiny A-frame cabins and opened Wrong Way River Lodge & Cabins in 2022. As it turned out, a post-COVID climate marked by an increase in outdoor recreation worked in their favor, and “we came out of the gates beating our projections,” said Steele.

A couple of years later, another unpredictable and unprecedented event — Hurricane Helene, which decimated numerous parts of the Southeast, most notably Asheville — would lead to less positive consequences.

“We were closed for the whole month of October. It was absolutely crippling,” said Steele, noting that the fall season is their busiest. In a nutshell, “the small business journey isn’t predictable.”

About a mile down the road from Steele and Balcken, Cooperative Coffee Roasters owner Matt McDaniel survived the pandemic and Helene while also dealing with unprecedented coffee market volatility.

His costs increased so much from when he launched in 2019 that, in 2024, he had to raise prices up to 18% for wholesale clients — and that was before Trump introduced his tariffs in 2025. He hasn’t yet felt an effect from the tariffs since he buys his coffee ahead of time, but expects it to be “a downstream effect.”

Between health crises, natural disasters, and trade wars, “I definitely didn’t expect things to be so volatile in the world,” said the business owner, who has not only maintained operations during chaotic periods but expanded his roasting facility to include a café in 2024. “But I also don’t think I was holding on too rigidly to the idea that things would just be smooth and easy either.”

As Steele and McDaniel’s experiences weathering more than just economic headwinds have shown, recession chatter and general economic uncertainty shouldn’t necessarily halt your plans to launch a business in 2025.

“It’s always a great time to start a business — and some of the most successful businesses are started during recessions,” certified financial planner Cary Carbonaro told BI.

In the first installment in BI’s six-part series on making major life decisions in periods of uncertainty, we’re looking at whether now is a good time to start a business.

Successful businesses come from recessions

Morgan Stanley compiled a list of companies created during depressions, recessions, and general economic stress — including American Airlines in 1930 and Airbnb in 2008 — and it included nearly half of the Fortune 500 companies.

“Adversity is the mother of invention,” said Carbonaro.

That said, you still have to have a sound business plan and be prepared financially. Carbonaro recommends having a big enough runway that you could operate for a year without turning a profit. That’s in addition to your personal emergency fund, she noted, which should cover between three and six months’ worth of expenses.

To further mitigate risk, she advises keeping your full-time job and starting your business as a side project. Only when it grows to the point where you can consistently pay yourself enough to cover your needs and lifestyle should you consider walking away from your day job.

Certified financial planner Kenneth Chavis IV wants entrepreneurs to think about how a new business would fit into their short-, mid-, and long-term money goals.

“You want to make sure that that decision is really aligned with what you’re setting out to do,” he told BI. “Really just ask, ‘What’s sparking the decision?'”

Then, imagine how you and your business would react to a recession or a major challenge such as trade policy changes: “Are you ready to stick it out? There’s a high percentage of startups that certainly don’t make it past the first couple of years, so I would want to really make sure that somebody has the right expectations and that they’re prepared both with what their plan is to do in the business and also with their personal finances.”

Consider ‘recession-proof’ businesses that excite you

Certain industries may be more recession-resilient than others.

“The economy will go up and down over the many decades you’re an investor, but some industries withstand recessions better than others,” writes financially independent entrepreneur Grant Sabatier in his book “Inner Entrepreneur.”

Take the home services industry, for example: “No matter what the state of the economy, people still need their heating and air conditioning to work.” Sabatier considers plumbing, electrical installation and repair, landscaping, and other home services businesses “recession-proof.”

As more and more homes are built across the country, the demand for these services will only increase, he added: “There’s a reason why private equity firms are buying up home-service companies — because they’re always in demand and very profitable.”

Sabatier also categorizes childcare services as recession-resistant — “working parents require childcare regardless of economic conditions” — as well as businesses offering education and job training. “Individuals often seek to improve their skills or retrain during economic downturns to enhance their employment prospects.”

Business coach and creator of The Break Community Mike Gardon says to “pick industries that have growth behind them and solve real problems.”

AI, for example, “has obvious tailwinds,” he told BI. “If you have the chops to understand how to harness AI, that would be a good long-term business to be in.”

What you’re good at and what you like to spend your time on should factor in, as well.

“To start a business, you have to be madly passionate about what you’re going to be doing,” said Carbanaro. “A business should be a passion first, rather than a way to make money or a way to not work for somebody else.”

As McDaniel puts it, build your “sandbox to play in.” His sandbox is buying and roasting green coffee. For Steele, it’s providing a space to share river culture and outdoor experiences with visitors.

Ideating something that sounds more like play than work will help you cross what Steele considers a prospective entrepreneur’s biggest barrier to entry: starting.

“If you have the gumption and you feel like the timing is right, going for it is the big leap,” he said.

McDaniel agrees that there’s no one-size-fits-all answer. It comes down to the individual entrepreneur: “I don’t think that there’s ever a right time to open a business except for the time that you feel like you can do it.”