Sirius XM generates sizable recurring revenues, and management expects its free cash flow to rise.
It faces strong competition from audio streaming services.
Sirius XM shares trade at a cheap valuation, but their discount might be justified.
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The U.S. stock market is on track to close out 2025 with another double-digit percentage return. But not every company contributed positively to that result. For example, as of Friday morning, Sirius XM (NASDAQ: SIRI) shares were down by around 9% year to date. This continues a disappointing streak: The stock has tanked by 67% over the past five years.
Yet after this latest decline, is it possible that Sirius XM has become a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity? The answer rests on the business, its fundamentals, and its valuation.
When it comes to the domestic satellite radio market, there is only one contender. Sirius XM is the only operator in the U.S., and regulatory hurdles would make it hard for any would-be rivals to get off the ground. Plus, there would be substantial capital investments required to build out the necessary infrastructure and scale up.
As such, Sirius XM is theoretically a competitively advantaged business. Moreover, the company generates meaningful subscription revenue — $1.6 billion in Q3 alone. Subscriptions account for 75% of its total sales base, and that recurring revenue stream makes its overall finances more predictable.
Another good sign is that the business is profitable: It reported net income of $297 million last quarter. Management also expects the company to produce just over $1.2 billion in free cash flow (FCF) this year, and is targeting FCF of $1.5 billion in 2027. With the company on track to require lower capital expenditures, FCF is positioned to trend higher, if you believe what its executives are saying.
However, the company is not without some negative qualities that investors would be wise not to overlook. One clear factor working against Sirius XM is technological innovation, namely the ubiquity of smartphones and faster internet connectivity. Advances on those fronts laid the groundwork for streaming services like Spotify and Apple Music to thrive. And these might offer consumers a better value proposition.
Sirius XM might not have any direct competitors in the satellite radio industry. However, it’s obviously facing intense competition from these streamers — particularly those that are operated by tech sector megacaps. They all have the resources to make things difficult for Sirius XM, which registered a shrinking self-pay subscriber base and declining revenue in Q3.