Social Security’s retirement and survivor benefits are projected to face a funding shortfall as early as 2033, at which point the program would only be able to pay about 77% of scheduled benefits unless Congress intervenes.
The combined reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance trust funds are now expected to be depleted by 2034 — one year sooner than previously estimated, according to the latest Social Security Trustees Report. While the DI Trust Fund remains stable over the 75-year projection period, the earlier depletion of combined funds signals growing urgency for policymakers to act.
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Social Security Administration Commissioner Frank Bisignano said in a statement that maintaining the trust funds’ solvency is a key concern for the White House. “The financial status of the trust funds remains a top priority for the Trump administration,” Bisignano said. He also called on Congress and federal agencies to work together to strengthen the program for future generations.
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Tariffs, Deportations May Undermine the System
While the administration says Social Security is a priority, some policy experts argue that its recent actions are moving in the opposite direction. A blog post by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities raises red flags about the Trump Administration’s economic and immigration strategies.
The report’s economic assumptions were finalized in December, before the Trump Administration implemented widespread tariffs and an aggressive deportation policy. According to the CBPP, these moves could harm Social Security in several ways:
- Tariffs could drive up consumer prices, leading to higher cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security beneficiaries and increasing the program’s costs.
- Economic uncertainty caused by inconsistent tariff policies may slow job growth and wages — two key sources of payroll tax revenue that fund Social Security.
- Immigration restrictions reduce the number of workers paying into the system, further weakening its long-term outlook.
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Experts also warn that deporting working immigrants — who pay payroll taxes even if they never receive benefits — shrinks the tax base that supports the trust funds.
Benefit Expansions and Tax Cuts Add to the Strain
The trustees’ report does account for one recent policy change: a 2024 law that repealed the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset, boosting benefits for some public sector workers. According to the CBPP, this change alone is expected to cost the trust funds $200 billion over the next decade and reduce the projected depletion timeline by about six months.
In addition, tax cuts passed as part of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” could reduce revenues by lowering the number of Social Security beneficiaries who pay taxes on their benefits.
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A Growing Gap, and Limited Time
According to the Trustees report, Social Security’s total costs will outpace total income beginning this year and continue to do so over the 75-year projection period. In 2024, total income was $1.42 trillion, while expenditures reached $1.48 trillion. Administrative costs remained low, at just 0.5% of total spending.
The projected actuarial deficit over the long term is now 3.82% of taxable payroll — up from 3.50% last year.
With less than a decade left until the combined trust funds run dry, lawmakers face growing pressure to act. But whether current policies are helping or hurting that goal is a question many experts are still debating.
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