S&P 500 Gains Again as Market Enters Prime Seasonal Window

Monitoring purposes; long SPX on 5/15/58 at 5916.93

Our gain 1/1/24 to 12/31/24 = 29.28%; SPX gain 23.67%

Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes : Sold long 4/11/25 at 49.66 = gain 21.33%.

We ended up at 29.28% for 2024; SPX up 23.67% for the year. was up 6 days in a row going into last Monday, suggesting the market will be higher within five days 85% of the time (Check).  

The sixth best week of the year according to seasonality is May 24 to June 5, and we are in that timeframe now.  Above is the daily SPY. SPY broke below the previous lows of 570 back in March and then closed above those lows in early May (shaded in light pink).

When a market can’t hold below its previous lows, it will attempt to take out its previous highs, and in this case, the previous high is 610 range; the February highs. Most likely, the next attempt at 610 may find resistance and therefore a place we may exit our long SPX.

The weekly pattern that appears to be forming on SPY is a Head and Shoulders pattern. The Left Shoulder developed from December 2024 to January 2025; the Head formed at the April 2025 low, and the Right Shoulder is starting now and may not complete until July or August.

This potential Head and Shoulders pattern has a measured target near 740 on the SPY, which is over 25% higher than current levels. Support comes in nearthe  575 range, which is where a gap lies and the week of March 24 high.  Long SPX on 5/15/25 at 5916.93

Though there may be a consolidation in the coming weeks (see yesterday’s report); the larger trend remains up. The bottom window is the monthly GDX cumulative up-down volume with its Bollinger band, and the next higher window is the monthly GDX cumulative advance/decline with its Bollinger band.

When both indicators remain above their mid-monthly Bollinger band, GDX is considered in an uptrend. As you can see both indicators are making higher highs, showing the internal strength in GDX is getting stronger. Monthly charts remain on a solid buy signal