Spot rates climb but lack support

Chart of the Week:  National Truckload Index, Outbound Tender Rejection Index – USA SONAR: NTI.USA, OTRI.USA

The National Truckload Index (NTI) — a measure of dry van spot rates — rose 2% last week, climbing from $2.31 to $2.36 per mile. While this increase isn’t alarming on its own, the lack of seasonal support and the muted response in truckload tender rejections — a measure of contract carrier compliance — (OTRI) make it a more significant development for assessing the health of the trucking sector.

The NTI has increased more than 2% in a single week seven times so far in 2025. Aside from an anomaly in February, tender rejection rates rose either before or around each of those jumps in spot rates. Typically, non-seasonal increases in spot rates are preceded by a rise in tender rejections, but there are occasions when the spot market reacts first and the contract market adjusts afterward.

Last week’s disruption appears to have been driven by reports of crackdowns on illegal immigration targeting the trucking industry. A Serbian immigration lawyer reportedly advised many foreign born operators to stay off the roads due to heightened risks of detention.

According to government data, about 18% of the driver population were foreign born as of 2021. Roughly 60% of those drivers are Latino from the Americas, with the remaining 40% primarily from Eastern Europe and India. Many foreign drivers, especially those with temporary status, tend to work for smaller fleets or as owner-operators, as they often reside in the U.S. only part-time and send earnings back home to support their families. Larger fleets generally prefer year-round availability and are also more risk-averse due to language proficiency requirements and safety concerns.

For these reasons, larger carriers — which dominate contract freight and heavily influence tender data — are less affected by recent immigration crackdowns.

The spot market, on the other hand, is dominated by smaller carriers and owner-operators. It’s also where brokers tend to find the best opportunities to expand or protect margins by working with lower-cost providers. This is why the spot market was much more sensitive to the recent enforcement activity.

The spot market accounts for an estimated 15–20% of total domestic freight volume. Without support from the much larger contracted segment, it’s difficult to say whether this represents a true inflection point or simply a short-term disruption similar to Roadcheck Week.

Regardless of how this event develops, it highlights a deeper issue in the truckload sector. Both spot and rejection rates have remained relatively stable despite weakening freight demand.

Truckload tender volumes (OTVI) fell another 3% last week, while rejection rates held steady. The market has become increasingly reactive to capacity disruptions — such as holidays and this latest crackdown.

Over the longer term, tender volumes are down roughly 20% year over year, while rejection rates are flat. Normally, rejection rates fall alongside demand. The current stability suggests that capacity is exiting the market at roughly the same pace demand is declining, leaving networks less buffered and less flexible. Low freight rates also discourage long stretches of empty or non-revenue miles.

Capacity has been eroding for nearly three years due to persistently difficult conditions.

Since October 2023, the market has averaged a net loss of 264 carriers per week, though it often takes a year or more for these exits to become official, making this data slow or lagging for exits. The truckload market’s fragility is growing, even as the decline in demand continues to conceal its underlying vulnerability.

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