Stock Market Outlook: 10 Possible Winners Goldman Sees After Wild First Half

It’s been a volatile year for stock traders, but there are a handful of new winners in the S&P 500 that could be poised for big gains over the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs.

In a note to clients on Friday, the bank said it updated its Sharpe Ratio basket, a list of 50 stocks with the highest expected risk-adjusted returns. So far, the basket has gained 3% year-to-date, edging past the S&P 500’s 1.7% gain.

The S&P 500’s overall risk-adjusted return has been “lower than usual” so far in 2025, the strategists said, pointing to increased volatility and lower-than-average returns stemming from fears around tariffs.

The bank rebalanced its portfolio by choosing stocks with a high prospective Sharpe Ratio, a gauge for risk-adjusted returns calculated by dividing a percentage return to a stock’s consensus 12-month price target by its six-month option-implied volatility.

“Currently, the median S&P 500 stock is expected to post an 11% return to its 12-month consensus price target with a 6-month implied volatility of 28, yielding a prospective risk-adjusted return of 0.4,” the bank wrote.

Here are the top 10 newest additions to Goldman’s Sharpe basket.

1. Moderna

Ticker: MRNA

Return to consensus price target: 88%

Expected return over implied volatility: 1.3

2. Viatris

Ticker: VTRS

Return to consensus price target: 61%

Expected return over implied volatility: 1.5

3. Enphase Energy

Ticker: ENPH

Return from consensus price target: 45%

Expected return over implied volatility: 0.6

4. PG&E Corp

Ticker: PCG

Return to consensus price target: 45%

Expected return over implied volatility: 1.1

5. Thermo Fisher Scientific

Ticker: TMO

Return to consensus price target: 42%

Expected return over implied volatility: 1.2

6. Fiserv

Ticker: FI

Return to consensus price target: 37%

Expected return over implied volatility: 1.2

7. Cooper Companies

Ticker: COO

Return to consensus price target: 37%

Expected return over implied volatility: 1.2

8. Salesforce

Ticker: CRM

Return to consensus price target: 37%

Expected return over implied volatility: 1.1

9. Lennar Corp

Ticker: LEN

Return to consensus price target: 34%

Expected return over implied volatility: 0.9

10. EPAM Systems

Ticker: EPAM

Return to consensus price target: 33%

Expected return over implied volatility: 0.8