The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down -0.30%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.88%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.11%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -0.42%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -0.26%.
Stocks are being undercut by today’s +6 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield and the +4% rally in WTI crude oil prices. Crude oil prices are trading higher despite the IEA’s decision to release oil stockpiles.
Stocks are seeing downward pressure as the Iran war drags on, with three vessels hit by missiles today in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, and new missile volleys hitting Israel.
However, tech stocks are seeing support from today’s positive AI news from Oracle.
Stocks showed little net reaction to the CPI report, which was in line with market expectations.
The oil market took in stride today’s decision by IEA members to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles, much larger than the 182 million-barrel release in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The release is designed to replace the oil lost due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown and the subsequent production cuts by Persian Gulf oil producers, although it will take some time for the oil stockpiles to reach the market.
Today’s US Feb CPI report was exactly in line with market expectations. The Feb CPI rose +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y, while the Feb core CPI rose +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. Today’s headline CPI report of +2.4% y/y was just 0.1 point above the 5-year low posted in April 2025, while today’s core CPI of +2.5% y/y matched the 5-year low posted in the two previous months. Even though the CPI figures are at or near 5-year lows, they are still above the Fed’s target of +2%. Moreover, inflation pressures will worsen in the coming months due to the recent spike in oil and fuel prices caused by the war in Iran.
Stocks were undercut today after JPMorgan Chase said it is restricting lending to private credit funds amid markdowns on some of its loans in the sector, hampering the sector’s attempt to weather the current crisis. The $1.8 trillion private credit sector is struggling to cope with an investor exodus driven by unattractive returns and fears of more financial difficulties among portfolio borrowers.
Q4 earnings season is nearly over, with more than 95% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results. Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 492 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.
The markets are discounting a 0% chance for a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Overseas stock markets are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -1.00%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.25%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.43%, adding to Tuesday’s +2.88% recovery rally.
Interest Rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) are down by -16.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +5.6 bp at 4.212%, adding to Tuesday’s rise of +6 bp. T-note prices are being undercut by today’s +4% rally in oil prices and the +3.6 bp rise in the 10-year inflation expectations rate to 2.386%. T-note prices are also being undercut by supply overhang ahead of the Treasury’s sale of 10-year T-notes today and 30-year bonds on Thursday. The T-note market largely ignored today’s CPI report as stale news, given the surge in oil and fuel prices since the Iran war began.
European government bond yields are sharply higher. The 10-year German bund yield is up +9.6 bp at 2.932%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +14.4 bp at 4.698%.
Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on March 19.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are mixed, with Amazon.com (AMZN) showing a decline of more than -1% but Tesla (TSLA) showing a gain of nearly +2%.
Oracle (ORCL) is up more than +10% after reporting strong results and guidance indicating strong demand for AI computing.
The Oracle news is providing early support to the software and computing infrastructure sector, but most of those stocks have now turned lower. Datadog (DDOG) is up more than +2%. However, IBM (IBM) and Microsoft (MSFT) are both down about -0.8%.
Chip stocks also saw some support from the Oracle news, led by gains of more than +3% in Micron Technology (MU) and more than +2% in Intel (INTC). Nvidia (NVDA) is up +0.4%
Oil stocks are seeing support with today’s rally in oil prices. Marathon Oil (MPC) and Valero are up more than +4%. Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Devon Energy (DVN), and APA Corp (APA) are up more than +2%.
Nike (NKE) gave up an early advance and is now little changed after an upgrade from Barclays to overweight.
Campbell’s Co (CPB) is down more than -7% after cutting its full-year earnings guidance.
UniFirst Corp (UNF) is up more than +8% after Cintas agreed to buy the company in a deal worth $5.5 billion.
Earnings Reports(3/11/2026)
Campbell’s Company (CPB).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
