Key Takeaways
Bitcoin has yielded positive returns in Q4 8 times since 2013.
November is typically a positive month for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s December returns have averaged 4.75% since 2013.
The fabled month of Uptober has been a mixed bag of results for crypto.
The market relished in Bitcoin’s new all-time highs for a brief moment before an unprecedented, unpredictable, $19 billion market liquidation, which pressured the market downward into a bearish stupor.
But fear not – Q4 is also a historical deliverer of gains for Bitcoin.
Q4 2024 saw a 47.73% return, and Q4 2023 56.9% return according to CoinGlass data.
In fact, since 2013, Q4 has yielded positive returns 8 times , with 2022, 2019, 2018, and 2014 being the only negative Q4 periods.
Bitcoin’s quarterly returns. | Source: CoinGlass.
However, BTC’s tumble below $110,000 has compounded woes, and sentiment is increasingly bearish.
It’s considered a failed Uptober, one that should have propelled the crypto markets into a long-overdue altcoin season.
That, but that appears to be on hold, especially given that the “Crypto Fear and Greed” index has fallen into “Fear” territory.
Per CoinGlass, it’s still Bitcoin season, and CoinMarketCap’s altcoin season index agrees.
That said, past performance is not an indicator of future performance, but there’s nothing wrong with being a little hopeful.
If you’re yet to enter the market or, you’re looking at your portfolio wondering how you’ll ever recover, take a step back and cool your nerves.
Firstly, establish some trading rules that help you strategies for entries and exits. For example: “No more low-cap memecoins” or “Scoop profits after X%.”
It’s important to tell yourself what you’re going to do, and stick to it.
Greed is often the killer of any good crypto trading strategy.
It can be bullish, bearish, or simply trade sideways.
Allocate investments accordingly, and don’t be afraid to miss out and set aside some cash for January when everyone’s spent from the holidays.
Step two: lower your expectations. 2025 has been a crazy year, but as shown, the line can’t always go up.
Set reasonable targets based on your financial situation, and be realistic about them.
This will help to keep your emotions cool, finances manageable, and reinforce positive habits that may allow you to steadily stack profits.
There’s nothing wrong with staying “boring” and buying good old-fashioned Bitcoin, or any of the top ten coins by market cap.
Keep stacking, and don’t let the FOMO spook you too hard this year.
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