In a first for the company, Tesla (TSLA) previewed its own fourth quarter quarter deliveries release.
On its investor relations site, Tesla posted its own Wall Street consensus estimates for Q4 and full-year deliveries. For Q4, Tesla said “company compiled delivery consensus” came in at 422,850 units globally, which would represent a 15% drop from a year ago.
Interestingly, that figure is below the 445,000 delivery estimate as compiled via Bloomberg, which would only be a 10% drop. Tesla reported the median estimate was 420,399.
Tesla stock was little changed in early trading on Tuesday.
Some commentators have speculated that Tesla’s release of these compiled estimates means the company is trying to get ahead of a poor delivery report and cushion the blow.
A fourth quarter delivery drop is not exactly a surprise given the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit at the start of the quarter. The question was how bad the drop would be in the US and whether international markets could overcome sales losses in the US. Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book estimates Tesla US sales fell to 125.9K units in the quarter, down 22.4%.
For the year, Tesla’s consensus estimates came in at 1,640,752 deliveries, an 8% drop compared to 2024 and the automaker’s second consecutive year of sales declines.
Deutsche Bank also feels the Wall Street consensus of over 1.6 million units is too optimistic.
“We believe consensus estimates of 1.66m in deliveries may be too high and we model 1.62m units based on our 4Q assumptions, implying down 9% YoY,” analyst Edison Yu wrote in mid December.
A second consecutive year of sales losses isn’t typically congruent for a stock that has gained nearly 14% this year, with a forward P/E of over 200, per Yahoo Finance calculations.
But analysts like Deutsche Bank’s Yu and Wedbush’s Dan Ives argue fundamentals don’t matter for stocks like Tesla, which are bets more on mobility, robotics, and AI than the traditional auto business.
Yu and Ives are bullish on Tesla’s robotaxi prospects.
“Perhaps more importantly though, the narrative around robotaxi remains strong despite the size of the fleet tracking smaller than expected thus far,” Yu wrote. “In late October, [CEO] Elon Musk alluded to 1,000 vehicles in the Bay Area and 500 or more in Austin. Our tracking suggests they are not going to achieve these levels. However, Tesla did remove the safety driver in Austin this past weekend for testing internal validation, suggesting a wider roll-out is coming soon.”
