Tesla Sales In Freefall—Here’s What Prediction Markets Say About The Company’s Robotaxi Lifeline

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) has posted its 13th consecutive month of declining sales in Europe while rival BYD Company (OTC:BYDDY) more than doubled its market share.

Tesla’s new car registrations across the EU, UK and EFTA fell 17% year-on-year in January to just 8,075 units.

Market share slipped to 0.8%, down from 1% a year earlier.

But registrations only capture one month’s snapshot.

Actual sales tell a darker story.

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Across 13 European markets, Tesla’s sales volume has dropped roughly 50% since January 2024. That means the decline is accelerating.

UK registrations alone plunged 57%.

This isn’t an EV problem.

Battery electric car sales across the EU climbed nearly 14% in January, and the segment now accounts for almost 20% of the market.

BYD shifted 18,242 cars in the same period, a 165% year-on-year jump, giving it more than double Tesla’s European market share.

Morningstar’s Michael Field told CNBC that Chinese automakers have a cost advantage that may prove insurmountable.

Tesla’s problems don’t end in Europe. Globally, deliveries have now fallen two years running, dropping 8.6% in 2025 to 1.64 million.

BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s top EV brand last year.

The stock is off roughly 11% year-to-date, trading around $409.

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Much of Tesla’s $1.5 trillion valuation rests on autonomous vehicles eventually eclipsing the car business. Elon Musk told investors in January 2025 that robotaxis would be “the largest asset value increase in human history.”

Traders on Polymarket are skeptical this increase will happen anytime soon.

A contract on Tesla launching robotaxis in California by June 30 sits at 26%.

A market on selling a Cybercab for $30,000 or less this year is at 28%, despite Elon Musk touting an April production start and a sub-$30K price tag.

A contract on Robovan preorders before 2027 trades at 20%.

Volume on all three is relatively thin, about $95,000 in total, so the signal is directional, not definitive. But the consistency is notable: bettors are pricing every major robotaxi milestone as unlikely.

Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL)-owned Waymo expanded to 10 U.S. cities this week, adding Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Orlando.

It’s logging over 400,000 driverless rides per week and targeting 1 million by year-end, backed by $16 billion in fresh capital.

Tesla’s Austin fleet has roughly 44 active vehicles.

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A Jefferies note released today found that Tesla offered just 2 of 15 test rides without a safety driver and failed to book a ride over 25% of the time.

Musk predicted 500 robotaxis in Austin by the end of 2025. He said half the U.S. would be covered. Neither happened.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives maintains a $600 base case and $800 bull case, calling 2026 the “most important year” for Tesla.

ARK’s Cathie Wood has projected $2,600 by 2030 on the robotaxi recurring revenue thesis.

Bulls also point to Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, as another long-term catalyst.

But Polymarket gives a consumer release by year-end just a 21% chance, and Musk himself has warned that early production will be “agonizingly slow.”

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This article Tesla Sales In Freefall—Here’s What Prediction Markets Say About The Company’s Robotaxi Lifeline originally appeared on Benzinga.com