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- The US government shutdown is stretching into its fourth week with no end in sight.
- Prediction markets think it will drag on to become the longest on record by a wide margin.
- Investors have shrugged off the shutdown, even as the impact on federal workers has been high.
Three weeks on, the US government shutdown is showing no signs of ending, and if betting markets are right, it’ll easily end up being the longest in history.
The federal government shut down on October 1. At 22 days long, that’s less than two weeks shy of the longest-ever shutdown that stretched from December 18, 2018, to January 25, 2019.
On Thursday, odds on Polymarket showed that bettors think the latest shutdown will be the lengthiest on record. A wager with almost $2 million in volume shows 40% of bettors think it will last until November 16 or later. After that, 16% believe it will go until November 4-7, and 13% see it lasting until November 13-16.
Polymarket.
Bets on Kalshi also show that users expect the shutdown to continue well into November. Betting volume has reached $16,383,303, and bettors see a 77% chance that it will exceed 35 days, lasting until November 15. Odds that it will last at least 40 days are currently at 56%.
The shutdown has already been disruptive, with federal workers laid off or furloughed, while others, like air traffic controllers and TSA officers, have been working without pay.
In the stock market, the effects have been minimal, with earnings season capturing investors’ attention over the shutdown. AI, meanwhile, continues to lift the market, and investors are heading into earnings for the biggest tech players next with high expectations for more evidence that AI is booming.
