Health care has traditionally been the safest sector in the stock market, driven by steady demand, demographics and earnings that hold up even in the face of economic downturns.
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Yet the latest U.S. employment report has raised uncomfortable questions for ETF investors everywhere: what if even the safest sector starts to weaken?
The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February as the unemployment rate inched up to 4.4%, exceeding expectations. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the employment report was significantly worse than the 55,000 job losses expected in Bloomberg’s economist survey.
But the most notable aspect of the employment report was the surprise loss in the U.S. health care sector, traditionally one of the most reliable contributors to employment growth.
The sector lost 28,000 jobs in February, partly because of strike actions by employees of Kaiser Permanente.
Traditionally, the U.S. health care and social assistance sector has driven employment growth in the country even as other industries struggled with the weight of rising borrowing costs and weakening demand. In February, social assistance remained one of the few bright spots, adding roughly 9,000 jobs even as overall payrolls fell.
Why It Matters For Health Care ETFs
This shift is important to ETF investors because the health care sector has traditionally been considered the most reliable sector in the market in terms of providing a level of stability.
Another popular fund to watch is the Vanguard Health Care ETF (NYSE:VHT), which provides broader exposure to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, medical device and health care industries.
Traditionally, the stability of the health care sector is due to the fact that people will always need medical care, regardless of the overall state of the economy. As a result, the sector has a reputation for providing a level of stability in terms of revenue and earnings.
The most recent employment figures, though, indicate the sector may not entirely be sheltered from the overall labor market, particularly in the face of strikes.
A Broader Signal For Markets
Although the decline might be short-lived, it does underscore how reliant employment gains have been on health care and social assistance.
If employment gains in that industry continue to slow significantly, it might have implications extending beyond health care and social assistance ETFs.
This means that weakness in health care and social assistance might have spillover effects into broad market ETFs, even if other industries are holding steady.
For now, the February jobs report may not signal a lasting shift. But the data serves as a reminder that even the market’s most “bulletproof” sector isn’t completely insulated from the economic cycle — a reality ETF investors may be watching more closely in the months ahead.
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