There is a short stretch of prime waterfront real estate in Miami that has come to be known as Billionaire’s Beach. It contains a mix of famous old art deco hotels such as the Delano and Raleigh, both undergoing extensive upmarket refurbishments, and the construction of exclusive new residential tower blocks with high-end apartments running into the tens of millions.
It is here on the sun-filled shores of South Beach, more than a thousand miles from the chills of a Manhattan winter, where realtors and developers are beginning to see the first shoots of what they call the “Mamdani effect”: the predicted exodus of wealthy New Yorkers in the wake of socialist democrat Zohran Mamdani’s election as mayor.
Senior real estate execs and others, including Donald Trump, have dented the idea that Mamdani will drive rich New Yorkers to the Sunshine state. But Florida realtors claim they are seeing an “exponential” recent rise in inquiries and sales.
The marketing agent for the Ritz-Carlton Residences, an upcoming project of 30 “beach house” condos ranging from single-bedroom apartments below $10m to its stunning $125m penthouse, has logged a 166% spike in interest from prospective buyers in New York from this time last year.
It is a pattern high-end realtors say is being reflected in other upscale developments across the city, from Miami Beach to the fashionable Brickell downtown financial district known as the Manhattan of the south, and the affluent, historic neighborhood of Coconut Grove with its yacht marinas and classy sidewalk eateries.
Governor Ron DeSantis has jokingly proposed Mamdani for a realtor of the year award, and suggested the imposition of a sales entrance tax for fleeing hordes of high-net-worth New Yorkers.
The Guardian took a tour of several of Miami’s newest – and priciest – developments to see what the Mamdani refugees will get for their money. Opulence, elegance and designer names abound in external architecture and internal fittings; expansive water views are de rigeur; and full-service attentiveness at luxurious spas and private restaurants with Michelin-starred chefs promise to melt stresses away in a New York minute.
Ritz-Carlton Residences, Miami Beach
“The second that the word on the street was that Mamdani was going to be elected we started getting phone calls,” said Pietro Belmonte, executive vice-president at Douglas Elliman, marketing agents for the striking beach house tower that blends the creativity of renowned South Florida architect Kobi Karp and extravagance of interior designer Alessandro Munge.
Single-bedroom apartments start at 1,200sq ft and slightly larger doubles kick in around $8.6m; three, four and five bedrooms on higher floors range from $10.5m to $22m and above; and the twin penthouses with rooftop private pools can be split for $69m and $55m respectively, or bundled for a cool $125m.
Bathroom floors have pure brass inlays between tiles; floor-to-ceiling windows and wraparound balconies give unparalleled views of the Atlantic; and you can wander straight from one of a number of José Andrés restaurants onto the development’s 350ft frontage on what is arguably Florida’s most prestigious beach.
Belmonte says the residences, which add to the footprint of the existing flagship Ritz-Carlton hotel at the ocean end of Miami Beach’s Lincoln Road shopping haven, will be ready for occupation in 2028. The timescale, he said, is perfect for those beginning to assess the impact of Mamdani’s election, and working toward taking the plunge.
“I don’t see it as a mass exodus, I see it more as a thoughtful exodus,” he said.
“It’s people thinking it through and making sure they’re making the right decision, and as time is going on they’re waiting to see if it’s true that all of this is going to happen, and when it will happen. So I think the second they start seeing things going not the right way, it’s going to be more of a final decision.
“They’re all second-home buyers. No one’s going to be here during the summer, they’ll be here for the six months and a day to make it their main residence then they’re going to be in St Tropez, they’ll be in Italy, in the Hamptons, in the Berkshires, wherever they are they’ll have the second home.”
Four Seasons Private Residences, Coconut Grove
No other individual has changed the Miami skyline as much as Ugo Colombo in his almost 40 years as a developer-designer in the city. The Italian-born founder of CMC Group says his latest project in Coconut Grove is “the crown jewel” of his long career spanning numerous luxury construction projects, and that it surpasses “everything I’ve done so far in terms of quality of details”.
He has a flourish New Yorkers seem to like, with about 15% of new buyers hailing from the city and surrounding areas, and a further 10% rise in interest from the region in the weeks surrounding Mamdani’s election.
“Most of these people already have second and third homes, right? So they’re not necessarily running to us and saying, ‘We’re escaping New York’, and I can’t tell you there was this immediate peak,” said Christine Martinez de Castro, CMC’s director of sales and marketing.
“But we’ve been seeing a little bit of an increase for a while. During Covid, people saw an opportunity and everything happening from a tax situation, which is only being more emphasized now with what’s happening with the election.
“People buying $10-15 million residences were already planning for this ahead of time.”
Her buyers can choose from 70 condominiums spread over 20 floors, starting at $6m for two bedrooms, to $18m for larger units of about 4,000sq ft. There’s a penthouse, of course, for which potential purchasers must sign a non-disclosure agreement before negotiations begin. You get a European-style spa, a signature restaurant with yet-to-be announced big-name chef, and the quieter, more laid back aura of “The Grove”.
An army of private staff will cater to every need, because discerning buyers choose the Four Seasons for its hallmark service, Martinez de Castro said.
“Maybe you forgot your daughter’s coming home from college and hasn’t had a really good home-cooked meal in a while,” she said.
“‘Why don’t we get something already sent up for you?’ and you’re like, ‘Oh yeah, I didn’t think about that’. You want the ‘Oh yeah, I didn’t think about that’ moment, right?”
The Perigon, Miami Beach
A “serene, private enclave designed by global icons” is how the Perigon, an under-construction development of 73 exclusive residences contained within glass towers on the widest part of Miami Beach, is being marketed.
“Activity at Perigon right now from the ultra, ultra high net worths is really staggering,” said Michael Patrizio, managing director of developers Mast Capital.
“What really matters to them is that the offering is authentic, it’s got to be real, it’s got to resonate. It’s the overall offering of great food, great service, certainty of delivery, quality of finish. Our product is, we believe, leading the market.”
The celebrity chef here is Australian Shaun Hergatt, who has two Michelin stars, and his restaurant will be open only to residents and their guests. In a nod to New York’s prohibition era past, a discreet, intimate speakeasy called FiftyThree will offer top-level mixology, while other amenities include a private cinema and children’s lounge.
Mast has made the pretty solid gamble that New Yorkers accustomed to dark and dreary Manhattan days will be enlivened by a surfeit of sunshine and 360-degree views encompassing Atlantic sunrises and sunsets over Biscayne Bay.
The least expensive condo is a two-bedroom unit starting at $12.5m, up to about $70m on higher floors with four bedrooms including primary and junior suites. Patrizio said the exclusivity of the complex appeals to “second, third, fourth, fifth, home buyers”.
“New York has always been a primary market for south Florida, particularly Miami, Miami Beach, and it feels like a lot of New Yorkers somehow tend to have ties to Miami in some fashion,” he said.
Construction at the Perigon is more advanced than at other sites and will reach its rooftop in February, Patrizio expects. “It gives certainty of delivery and shows [buyers] there’s a real timeline, there’s activity, there’s progress. I’d say that’s probably been one of our biggest drivers, people come in and say, “OK, well, you know it’s going up’.”
Cipriani Residences, Brickell
Rising to 80 stories and 940ft (287 meters), the Cipriani building will become not only Miami’s tallest structure, but also one of its most populated, with almost 400 condominium residences filling more than 1.2m sq ft of space. But this is no inner city housing project: even the smallest, one-bedroom apartment here has an asking price of just under $2m.
It is another Mast development and Patrizio says interest, inquiries and sales from New Yorkers in the high net worth range – opposed to the “ultras” – have all soared in the wake of the mayoral vote.
“Inquiries have increased exponentially,” he said.
“The day after he won the primary, we had a New York buyer who was kind of on the fence and decided to move forward, same thing the week of the election, one on the fence moved forward. Those are kind of direct deals that happened … it was the election, I can say that with certainty.”
The pace of Cipriani’s construction has been breakneck, it recently reached its 54th floor at a rate of one floor about every four days, Patrizio said. Consideration to its design and interior of the apartments was a much slower and thoughtful process, with the developers keen to capture the essence of European design.
Floors 62 and higher feature the Canoletto Collection, 74 exclusive homes including six penthouses claiming the “highest level of Venetian hospitality” and featuring interiors by 1508 London, one of the world’s leading design agencies.
The building is named for Giuseppe Cipriani, founder of Harry’s Bar in Venice in 1931, an establishment famous for its hospitality. In that spirit, Cipriani’s owners say its staff “indulges individual tastes and anticipates every desire, intuitively understanding when and where their attention is required”.
At the building’s pinnacle are three three-story residences with panoramic views across the Atlantic, Biscayne Bay and the city, each with a private elevator, concierge and infinity pool.
“I’ve worked in a lot of places, and I’ve seen very, very hot markets. What I see here in Miami is a sustainable market,” Patrizio said.
“There’s the relocation of major businesses, Citadel, Blackstone, Starwood Capital. That’s how we know it’s real, when you see an uptick in applications for the private schools. That means people are relocating.”
