Predictions abound about which jobs will be automated by AI—but contrary to popular belief, a tech takeover isn’t in full swing yet. In an end-of-year note to investors, Vanguard set the record straight: careers that research claims are most susceptible to AI are actually thriving, not dying out.
“The approximately 100 occupations most exposed to AI automation are actually outperforming the rest of the labor market in terms of job growth and real wage increases,” the Vanguard report revealed. “This suggests that current AI systems are generally enhancing worker productivity and shifting workers’ tasks toward higher-value activities.”
Instead of displacing employees from their jobs, AI is helping humans perform better at work, leading to some career wins. The job growth rate of occupations with high AI exposure—including office clerks, HR assistants, and data scientists—increased from 1% in pre-COVID-19 years (2015 through 2019) to 1.7% in 2023 and beyond, according to Vanguard’s research. Meanwhile, the growth rate of all other jobs declined from 1.1% to 0.8% over the same period. Workers in AI-prone roles are getting pay bumps, too; the wage growth of jobs with high AI exposure shot up from 0.1% pre-COVID to 3.8% post-pandemic (and post-ChatGPT). For all other jobs, compensation only marginally increased from 0.5% to 0.7%.
“AI will stand out among other megatrends, given its capacity to transform the labor market and drive productivity,” the researchers wrote. “The ongoing wave of AI-driven physical investment is expected to be a powerful force, reminiscent of past periods of major capital expansion such as the development of railroads in the mid-19th century and the late-1990s information and telecommunications surge.”
But not all roles will emerge from this AI growth spurt unscathed. The study notes that some occupations have withstood job losses due to AI automation, but it stipulates that this is a “common outcome of technological disruption.” As technology improves production and reallocates employee time to higher-value tasks, a smaller workforce is needed to deliver services. It’s a process that has “distinct labor market implications,” Vanguard writes, just like the many tech revolutions that predate AI.
“Much like electricity, railroads, and the internet before it, AI is driving a structural shift that demands significant capital investment to retool the economy for a new era,” the report explained.
Vanguard painted a relatively positive picture of humans coexisting with AI, but confirmed one unfortunate theory about the labor market: the kids are not alright. The report found that young, entry-level professionals are up against distressing career headwinds