Earlier in our discussion, I told Caleb that I consider myself an optimist in the long term, but a cautious optimist in the short term.
This is because while I’m bullish about being invested in the stock market, I’m well aware that the economy often goes into recession and stocks often go into corrections. This is just part of the deal.
Listen to the whole conversation at Investopedia, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify!
When we’re in the throes of some risk event, it can sometimes feel like things have never been worse.
Maybe we’re just misremembering the past.
When I read history or go through old journals, I’m reminded that past events were often, in fact, far worse than I imagined or remembered. And in many cases, they were worse than what we’re going through today. (More on this here.)
Someone recently brought up 2010’s Deepwater Horizon oil spill. My memory was that it went on for more than a few days — for a couple of weeks, surely.
I was shocked to read that the well was spewing oil into the Gulf of Mexico for three months before it was initially capped. And it took another two months for the well to be declared sealed.
Memory is a weird thing. We have lots of bad memories. For some of us, the further we move past a bad event, the more we forget just how bad it really was.
This might be good for our general mental health.
But the more we forget, the more we risk erroneously concluding that a current risk event is unusually bad. Of course, this same recency bias can apply to positive outcomes as well. Regardless, this misunderstanding could lead to mistakes with our investments if we aren’t mindful of it.
This came up in a conversation I had with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg’s At The Money podcast. Catch it on Bloomberg, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube!
Every couple of days, we hear about another company making layoffs. And in their announcement, management often mentions how artificial intelligence technology is disrupting their business.
Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese brought up AI when I joined them on the Facts vs. Feelings podcast. I shared a minor AI-related existential crisis confronting me:
This is a technology that is going to save you a lot of time and a lot of money and a lot of headache. And the quality is improving very, very, very rapidly. Any of us, who have played around with this stuff for the last couple of years, knows that, increasingly, when we do do that fact-checking, it’s airtight. This stuff is getting really, really, really good. And that’s a problem for the people who are providing all of that information! Because they have newsrooms and they have people– I have to pay rent!
Sometimes I use Google to look up topics and maybe even look up some of my past stuff. And instead of getting links to TKer or Yahoo Finance or Business Insider, I’m getting the summary of what Sam Ro said! And how he explained it! And I’m looking at it, and not only is it accurate, it’s written better than how I would have written it!
Many media companies rely heavily on referral traffic from Google searches. That traffic is facing a crisis as readers increasingly read AI summaries instead of clicking into the underlying content.
That said, history is riddled with examples of major technological breakthroughs that disrupted industries but ultimately supported goods and services people continued to value.
The advent of Microsoft Excel eliminated a lot of bookkeeping work, creating an existential crisis for accountants doing it by hand. But Excel also cleared the way for a boom in accounting and financial analysis jobs. Despite the availability of cheap, mass-produced bread, the market for artisanal baked goods has never been bigger. Cars and ride-sharing services are everywhere, and yet demand for bicycles has never been higher.
I think AI is going to take on a lot of tedious, repetitive work. But amid this disruption, I believe there will be continued demand for goods and services that come with a human or analog touch. If anything, awareness of the intangible and undefinable value of such products will rise.
Catch the discussion on CarsonGroup.com, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube!
Jared Blikre and Sydnee Fried invited me onto Yahoo Finance’s Stocks In Translation podcast for an interesting, wide-ranging discussion.
Before we taped, Jared asked what I’d be doing if I weren’t writing about markets as my profession. I hadn’t really thought about it before. Maybe it’s the recent heat wave, but the first thing that came to mind was running an ice cream shop in a small town.
Jared then asked a most unexpected question:
It is time for our runway showdown featuring two titans of frozen treats. Stage left, gelato glides in on a polished chrome cart. Small batch, slow-churned, and priced for connoisseurs. Think lean inventories, premium margins, and management guarding every basis point of profit. Stage right, we have soft serve. … Light and airy and built for speed. It wins by pumping out cones all day long. A high volume, low margin strategy that keeps cash flowing even in choppy weather. Call it resilience versus throughput. So Sam, when the economic headwinds swirl and valuation stretch, which type struts with the crown?
Maybe it’s a question about investing styles. Maybe it’s a question about ice cream.
“As someone who preaches the merits of diversification and index fund investing, why do you have to choose one or the other?” I responded. “Why can’t you go with both? If one fails, you still have the other one, and you limit your downside.”
There are times when your conviction is high and the move is to go all-in on an investment.
But if you can’t risk losing it all and diversification is an option, diversification is often the smarter move.
This is especially the case in the stock market where most stocks underperform and the market’s gains are largely driven by a few, hard-to-identify names.
Catch the whole conversation on Yahoo Finance, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or YouTube!
I spent many years in the news industry. In this business, there are senior editors who always demand fresh, wholly new stories. They really stress the “new” in “news.”
But in investing, history and its lessons often repeat.
In fact, I could make the case that almost all consequential stories about the stock market relate to one of 10 themes.
Accordingly, my writing has a lot of repetition.
This came up in a conversation I had with Joe Fahmy on his podcast, Joe’s Happy Hour.
Among other things, we talked about how we were both religion majors in school. The exchange reminded me of a parallel between religion and investing:
We have to repeat to ourselves, “Here’s the data.” … Most of the stuff that I publish in the context of market volatility and market routs and sell-offs, always involves stats like we were just talking about. In an average up year, you have these big drawdowns. Or over short periods of time, the odds of a positive return are relatively low relative to when you extend those time horizons. And you just have to keep repeating it.
I think this actually ties back to the whole religion thing too, by they way, and how the most popular book that’s ever been sold is the Bible. I grew up in Louisville, Kentucky, in a religious household. We went to church every Sunday. And anyone who’s affiliated with any religious group knows that once a week, you go somewhere, and someone’s teaching lessons from very old texts. And most of the time, when you listen to that lesson, they are reciting the same scripture, or the same scrolls, or the same verses that you’ve probably heard 50 times. How many times are they going to tell the Noah’s Ark story? Or how many times are they going to tell the story about David versus Goliath? But the story gets told over and over and over and over and over again because people need to hear it. I think it’s the same thing with investing and financial markets.
I’m sure many subscribers have noticed that I often repeat the same stats, the same historical parallels, and the same perspectives.
This is not because I’m running out of ideas. It’s just often the case that the same lessons and fundamentals apply to new developments in the markets and the economy.
And at least for me, I find it helpful to repeat those lessons. Because for whatever reason, they can be easy to forget when you’re in the throes of some new market rout or some new economic downturn.
Catch my full conversation with Joe on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube. Enjoy!
There were several notable data points and macroeconomic developments since our last review:
👍 The labor market continues to add jobs. According to the BLS’s Employment Situation report released Friday, U.S. employers added 147,000 jobs in June. The report reflected the 54th straight month of gains, reaffirming an economy with growing demand for labor.
(Source: BLS via FRED)
Total payroll employment is at a record 159.7 million jobs, up 7.4 million from the prepandemic high.
(Source: BLS via FRED)
The unemployment rate — that is, the number of workers who identify as unemployed as a percentage of the civilian labor force — declined to 4.1% during the month. The metric continues to hover near 50-year lows.
(Source: BLS via FRED)
While the major metrics continue to reflect job growth and low unemployment, the labor market isn’t as hot as it used to be.
For more on the labor market, read: The labor market is cooling 💼 and 9 once-hot economic charts that cooled 📉
💸 Wage growth could be lower. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month in June, down from the 0.4% pace in May. On a year-over-year basis, June’s wages were up 3.7%.
(Source: BLS via FRED)
For more on why policymakers are watching wage growth, read: Revisiting the key chart to watch amid the Fed’s war on inflation 📈
💼 Job openings tick higher. According to the BLS’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, employers had 7.77 million job openings in May, up from 7.39 million in April.
(Source: BLS via FRED)
During the period, there were 7.24 million unemployed people — meaning there were 1.07 job openings per unemployed person. This continues to be one of the more obvious signs of excess demand for labor. However, this metric has returned to prepandemic levels.
(Source: BLS via FRED)
For more on job openings, read: Were there really twice as many job openings as unemployed people? 🤨 and Revisiting the key chart to watch amid the Fed’s war on inflation 📈
👍 Layoffs remain depressed, hiring remains firm. Employers laid off 1.60 million people in May. While challenging for all those affected, this figure represents just 1.0% of total employment. This metric remains below prepandemic levels.
(Source: BLS via FRED)
For more on layoffs, read: Every macro layoffs discussion should start with this key metric 📊
Hiring activity continues to be much higher than layoff activity. During the month, employers hired 5.50 million people.
(Source: BLS via FRED)
That said, the hiring rate — the number of hires as a percentage of the employed workforce — has been trending lower, which could be a sign of trouble to come in the labor market.
(Source: BLS via FRED)
For more on why this metric matters, read: The hiring situation 🧩
🤔 People are quitting less. In May, 3.29 million workers quit their jobs. This represents 2.1% of the workforce. While the rate is above recent lows, it continues to trend below prepandemic levels.
(Source: BLS via FRED)
A low quits rate could mean a number of things: more people are satisfied with their job; workers have fewer outside job opportunities; wage growth is cooling; productivity will improve as fewer people are entering new, unfamiliar roles.
For more, read: Promising signs for productivity ⚙️
📈 Job switchers still get better pay. According to ADP, which tracks private payrolls and employs a different methodology than the BLS, annual pay growth in June for people who changed jobs was up 6.8% from a year ago. For those who stayed at their job, pay growth was 4.4%.
For more on why policymakers are watching wage growth, read: Revisiting the key chart to watch amid the Fed’s war on inflation 📈
💼 New unemployment claims tick lower. Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 233,000 during the week ending June 28, down from 237,000 the week prior. This metric remains at levels historically associated with economic growth.
(Source: DoL via FRED)
For more context, read: The labor market is cooling 💼
💳 Card spending data is mixed. From JPMorgan: “As of 26 Jun 2025, our Chase Consumer Card spending data (unadjusted) was 0.8% above the same day last year. Based on the Chase Consumer Card data through 26 Jun 2025, our estimate of the US Census June control measure of retail sales m/m is 0.40%.”
(Source: JPMorgan)
From BofA: “Total card spending per HH was up 0.2% y/y in the week ending Jun 28, according to BAC aggregated credit & debit card data. Relative to last week, in our sectors, department stores, general merchandise & clothing saw the biggest rise in y/y spending. Meanwhile, entertainment, lodging and transit saw the biggest decline relative to last week.”
(Source: BofA)
For more on consumer spending, read: Americans have money, and they’re spending it 🛍️
👍 Manufacturing surveys improve. From S&P Global’s June Manufacturing PMI: “June saw a welcome return to growth for US manufacturing production after three months of decline, with higher workloads driven by rising orders from both domestic and export customers. Reviving demand has also encouraged factories to take on additional staff at a rate not seen since September 2022. However, at least some of this improvement has been driven by inventory building, as factories and their customers in retail and wholesale markets have sought to safeguard against tariff-related price rises and possible supply issues. It therefore seems likely that we will get pay-back in the form of slower growth as we head into the second half of the year.”
(Source: S&P Global)
The ISM’s June Manufacturing PMI reflected further contraction in the sector, but improved since May.
(Source: ISM)
👍 Services surveys signal growth. From S&P Global’s June Services PMI: “The US service sector reported a welcome combination of sustained growth and increased hiring in June, but also reported elevated price pressures, all of which could add to pressure on policymakers to remain cautious with regard to any further loosening of monetary policy.”
(Source: S&P Global)
ISM’s June Services PMI also signaled growth in the sector.
(Source: ISM)
Keep in mind that during times of perceived stress, soft survey data tends to be more exaggerated than actual hard data.
For more on soft sentiment data, read: The confusing state of the economy 📊 and What businesses do > what businesses say 🙊
🏭 Business investment activity improves. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — a.k.a. core capex or business investment — increased 1.7% to $75.9 billion in May.
(Source: Census via FRED)
Core capex orders are a leading indicator, meaning they foretell economic activity down the road.
For more on core capex, read: An economic warning sign in the hard data ⚠️
🔨 Construction spending ticks lower. Construction spending decreased 0.3% to an annual rate of $2.138 trillion in May.
(Source: Census)
🏢 Offices remain relatively empty. From Kastle Systems: “Peak day office occupancy was 62.4% on Tuesday last week, down 1.8 points from the previous week. Dangerously hot weather affected occupancy on Monday and Tuesday in some Eastern cities, led by New York, where Tuesday occupancy fell 6.2 points to 64.2%. The average low was on Friday at 32%, down 2.2 points from the previous week, as many workers scheduled a long weekend following the Juneteenth holiday on Thursday. Washington, D.C. was the only tracked city to experience an increase on Friday after mass protests the previous week, up 3.4 points to 30.4%, although still much lower than the city’s typical Friday occupancy of about 36%.”
(Source: Kastle)
For more on office occupancy, read: This stat about offices reminds us things are far from normal 🏢
🏠 Mortgage rates tick lower. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined to 6.67%, down from 6.77% last week. From Freddie Mac: “The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased for the fifth consecutive week. This is the largest weekly decline since early March. Declining mortgage rates are encouraging and, while overall affordability challenges remain, more sellers are entering the market giving prospective buyers an advantage.”
(Source: Freddie Mac)
There are 147.8 million housing units in the U.S., of which 86.1 million are owner-occupied and about 34.1 million are mortgage-free. Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have fixed-rate mortgages, and most of those mortgages have rates that were locked in before rates surged from 2021 lows. All of this is to say: Most homeowners are not particularly sensitive to the small weekly movements in home prices or mortgage rates.
For more on mortgages and home prices, read: Why home prices and rents are creating all sorts of confusion about inflation 😖
📈 Near-term GDP growth estimates are tracking positively. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model sees real GDP growth rising at a 2.6% rate in Q2.
(Source: Atlanta Fed)
For more on GDP and the economy, read: 9 once-hot economic charts that cooled 📉 and You call this a recession? 🤨
🚨 The Trump administration’s pursuit of tariffs threatens to disrupt global trade, with significant implications for the U.S. economy, corporate earnings, and the stock market. Until we get more clarity, here’s where things stand:
Earnings look bullish: The long-term outlook for the stock market remains favorable, bolstered by expectations for years of earnings growth. And earnings are the most important driver of stock prices.
Demand is positive: Demand for goods and services remains positive, supported by healthy consumer and business balance sheets. Job creation, while cooling, also remains positive, and the Federal Reserve — having resolved the inflation crisis — shifted its focus toward supporting the labor market.
But growth is cooling: While the economy remains healthy, growth has normalized from much hotter levels earlier in the cycle. The economy is less “coiled” these days as major tailwinds like excess job openings and core capex orders have faded. It has become harder to argue that growth is destiny.
Actions speak louder than words: We are in an odd period, given that the hard economic data decoupled from the soft sentiment-oriented data. Consumer and business sentiment has been relatively poor, even as tangible consumer and business activity continues to grow and trend at record levels. From an investor’s perspective, what matters is that the hard economic data continues to hold up.
Stocks are not the economy: There’s a case to be made that the U.S. stock market could outperform the U.S. economy in the near term, thanks largely to positive operating leverage. Since the pandemic, companies have aggressively adjusted their cost structures. This came with strategic layoffs and investment in new equipment, including hardware powered by AI. These moves are resulting in positive operating leverage, which means a modest amount of sales growth — in the cooling economy — is translating to robust earnings growth.
Mind the ever-present risks: Of course, we should not get complacent. There will always be risks to worry about, such as U.S. political uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil, energy price volatility, and cyber attacks. There are also the dreaded unknowns. Any of these risks can flare up and spark short-term volatility in the markets.
Investing is never a smooth ride: There’s also the harsh reality that economic recessions and bear markets are developments that all long-term investors should expect as they build wealth in the markets. Always keep your stock market seat belts fastened.
Think long-term: For now, there’s no reason to believe there’ll be a challenge that the economy and the markets won’t be able to overcome over time. The long game remains undefeated, and it’s a streak that long-term investors can expect to continue.
Listen and subscribe to Stocks in Translation on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.
A version of this article first appeared at TKer.co
