00:00 Speaker A
To get more on today’s market action with Interactive Brokers Chief strategist, that would be Steve Sosnick. Steve, always great to see you, especially on set. So I have another day of green on the screen.
00:09 Speaker A
Everything’s up. Steve, you know, I’ll I’ll have some folks, they sit in that very chair. They say, of course, it’s green because the economy’s resilient and earnings growth is healthy and Jay Powell’s going to cut. What’s not to like?
00:25 Steve Sosnick
The thing I fear most is the lack of fear at this point. I think it I I think the fact that it just sort of seems inevitable that every day we’re going to go up and it it it’s it’s like almost too good to be true.
00:41 Speaker A
We can’t just enjoy it? enjoy the ride up?
00:43 Steve Sosnick
Well, I think we are. We are enjoying it, but I think you have to be a little bit wary of the fact that, you know, trees don’t grow to the sky.
00:49 Speaker A
What what why let me ask you this way. What’s on the Sosnik radar of concern?
00:58 Speaker A
What could derail us?
00:59 Steve Sosnick
First of all, I think the market’s placed a lot of enthusiasm on the the trade talks that are that are likely to happen this week. Um, we’ve seen that go awry. Um, you know, we’ve seen some of those deals sort of turn out to be frameworks, not deals.
01:17 Steve Sosnick
Again, this is not a problem. Let me let me just state that this is not a tape to be fighting right now. So I’m I’m just basically saying, okay, here are the things that could derail this this this this this bullet train riding down the tracks. Um and I think they all warrant some some consideration. We also get earnings. This is a huge earnings week as as as as just alluded to. Right? So on tomorrow alone, we have the Fed meeting.
01:46 Steve Sosnick
We have Microsoft after the close, we have Meta after the close, and we have Google after the close. So any one of these things can derail the market because part of it is, you know, we were expecting, everybody’s expecting great, nothing but great news from the from the, you know, we Mag 7 and we heard, you know, when you’re throwing in video, that’s like six of the Mag 7 we’re hearing from this week. I’m not so much on earnings.
02:07 Steve Sosnick
But also in the Fed meeting, everybody’s decided that the Fed is cutting rates and that you know, it’s it’s pretty much priced in that uh quantitative tightening is going to come to an end, which is which is also good for the market.
02:20 Steve Sosnick
Well, are they going to commit to future rate cuts? Are they going to acknowledge that they’re that that um that basically we’re in a situation where we, well, let’s just ignore the inflationary pressures and just focus.
02:37 Speaker A
3% is the new 2%? Is that kind of
02:39 Steve Sosnick
Well, see, that’s the problem. is 3% the next, you know, somebody wrote recently, it might have been the one of some of the Wall Street Journal that, you know, is the 2% target a target or a suggestion? And I think that’s a very fair way of putting it because we’re solidly at 3%. Yes, the last quarter last GDP report that we got uh was was a positive surprise and that was a reason for rallying. But, you know, can we can we just sort of say, all right, we’re we’re okay with 3% here.
03:13 Steve Sosnick
Um so there’s a basically when you think about it, no matter where you go, there’s a good scenario priced in. And typi and it’s it just means that are we going to continue to draw to an inside straight all the time. That’s a tough that’s a tough thing to say, which is why, um, you know, my mantra has been, don’t fight the tape, but ensure against it. And when you have things like VIX, um, you know, 16-ish, 15, 16 level, which by the way ticked up a little bit today because there there is a little bit of com, you know, just maybe a little bit of maybe we should hedge some of these events this week.
03:52 Steve Sosnick
Um, you know, it’s just I think you have to be opportunistic in that sense, um, and maybe not go shorting all these stocks, which which can be perilous, but maybe you want to say, all right, I, you know, the the market has shown you that they’re susceptible to hiccups when they come.
