Three weeks, hundreds of shows and one film premiere later and we have arrived at the final stretch of a momentous fashion month. But do you really need another newsletter telling you the stakes of Jonathan Anderson’s first womenswear show for Dior, or Matthieu Blazy’s Chanel debut?
Let’s talk about a couple other happenings coming this week instead.
The Clock Is Ticking at Nike
What’s happening: Nike reports its first-quarter results on Tuesday. The consensus forecast is for sales to drop 5 percent from a year earlier, though some analysts are predicting a return to growth toward the end of the current fiscal year.
A brighter future: That last bit is important. Nike has been slow-walking its turnaround, not getting too specific about timing, or even what products or categories will drive a rebound. This was understandable, as chief executive Elliott Hill had plenty of housecleaning and maintenance to do internally before pressing ahead with the meat of his “Win Now” strategy. That includes selling off leftover inventory and layoffs.
That work is mostly over, which means it’ll soon be time to start showing results. Progress becomes easier to demonstrate when compared against the double-digit percentage declines of the last year. Analysts are seeing some green shoots beyond that though: TD Cowen, which recently gave Nike’s stock a buy rating, found momentum for the brand in its consumer surveys and retail checks, and notes that some of Nike’s challengers have seen their own momentum start to slow.
The Kardashian factor: Nike’s biggest launch of the Hill era came last week with NikeSkims, which rolled out via a series of starry events and marketing activations, both real world (dozens of athletes posing on the steps of the New York Public Library) and online.
So far, so good, at least if you’re Kim Kardashian. For this to become an important business for Nike, however, the new brand will need to expand beyond its founder’s admittedly quite large following. Launchmetrics estimates Kardashian’s own social channels singlehandedly drove 30 percent of pre-launch engagement. But though there were some shoppers lined up outside the Nike and Skims flagships when products hit stores last week, it wasn’t a mob scene. (Then again, opening day can only tell you so much; super fans waited hours to be the first to get their hands on Yeezy Gap, and look how that turned out).
Perhaps leggings and sports bras were never going to draw a big crowd out of the gate. NikeSkims is playing the long game, however, targeting an activewear market where the reigning champion, Lululemon, is struggling, but plenty of other brands are also competing for market share. Beyond that, the NikeSkims brand concept is flexible enough to be applied to all sorts of categories – sneakers, for starters (Kardashian was already hinting to Complex on Friday that footwear is coming). But also categories like beauty where Nike has only dabbled.
Which story to believe: Tom Nikic, an analyst with Needham, describes Nike as a “narrative” story rather than a “numbers” story. It means investors will probably put up with a few more quarters of declining sales if there appears to be light on the horizon. “Over the next few months the ‘Elliott Hill as savior’ narrative is more likely to be reinforced rather than derailed,” Nikic wrote.
-Lei Takanashi and Sheena Butler-Young contributed to this item
The BoF 500, By the Numbers
This Friday, we’ll be unveiling The BoF 500 Class of 2025. I’m forbidden to spoil the surprise. But here are a few details to tide you over:
The new class includes 100 new members, from 30 countries and representing 40 nationalities.
Inductees are selected for their impact in the industry, based on nominations from existing BoF 500 members, on the ground intelligence from around the world, and in-depth research closely examined by BoF editors.
The new class will be celebrated at an intimate brunch in Paris on Friday, followed by the annual BoF 500 gala on Saturday at the Shangri-La Paris.
The full BoF 500 roster now includes 1,613 people representing 98 nationalities.
The US has the most members, at 349, followed by the UK at 211. China has the most outside of North America and Europe, at 97.
Members are inducted in one of eight categories reflecting their primary role in the industry. Designers and the creative class – including photographers, makeup artists and stylists – combine for over 500 members, or about one-third of the total. Executives and models and muses have just under 200 each.
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