This Week: Black Friday’s Expectations Game, Human Made’s IPO

Welcome to The Week Ahead, your guide to the coming week’s most important and interesting events.

I’m writing this from Soho Farmhouse as we wrap up the 10th edition of BoF VOICES 2025. This was a particularly good one. I appreciated the mix of inspiring stories, analysis of AI and other hot topics, and celebrities performing Hamlet soliloquies. There was also a willingness to realistically engage with the turbulent times we live in, including some tough questions asked (and sometimes even answered) on stage this year. You can check out the talks here.

Brian Baskin, Executive Editor, The Business of Fashion

In this week’s edition:

• I offer a Black Friday preview, looking at why consumers and retailer seem to have vastly different expectations heading into this crucial shopping period.
• And I’ll take a look at a truly rare event coming Thanksgiving Day: a fashion IPO, courtesy of Japanese streetwear brand Human Made.

Black Friday: Where Are the Deals?

Consumers and retailers are on a collision course when they head to the mall (or, more likely, their smartphones) to shop on Friday. Shoppers are even more keen than usual on discounts, while retailers are reining them in.

First, the shoppers. They’re worried about inflation, which remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s target at 3.5 percent in September. Complaints about the cost of groceries and other necessities are eroding support for President Donald Trump, with many blaming his tariff policies for the current economic situation. The recently concluded US government shutdown and rising unemployment aren’t helping get people in the holiday spirit. Forecasters are split on how all this will impact spending: the National Retail Federation, a trade group, predicts holiday spending to rise by about 4 percent, while Deloitte and PwC anticipate sharp declines.

At the same time, retailers are less willing to offer the sort of steep discounts that were once common over the holidays. Someone has to pay those tariffs, and brands like Levi’s and Ralph Lauren are betting they have enough of a connection with their customers to hold onto them without doorbuster deals. Most luxury brands certainly won’t be offering holiday specials. They have stopped hiking prices, but haven’t yet shown much interest in reintroducing affordable alternatives to their most expensive offerings. As Prada Group chief executive Andrea Guerra put it at BoF VOICES 2025 last week, they’re in the desirability business, after all. “If we’re talking about prices, we have failed on other issues,” he said.

AI, as always, is an intriguing wildcard. AI agents that make purchases on behalf of shoppers represent a tiny fraction of e-commerce purchases, but the technology’s use in searching for products to buy has spiked. Last week, OpenAI added Target to its growing list of retailers that allow its shopping agent to handle transactions. Meanwhile, using AI to browse for gifts is now the norm. BCG found this year 48 percent of consumers have used, or plan to use, AI in their shopping journey, up from 39 percent last year.

A Streetwear IPO

While Americans chow down on turkey, the Japanese streetwear designer Nigo will be taking his brand, Human Made, public on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. All signs point to a robust reception when shares begin trading, after the IPO priced at the top of its marketed range, raising 17.8 billion yen ($115 million). The money will be put towards opening stores in Japan and expanding online.

It’s been a minute since there was a fashion IPO. Groupe Dynamite, the Montreal-based holding company that owns the Dynamite and Garage brands, was the last, oddly also taking place the week of Thanksgiving, in 2024 on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Before that you have to go back to Birkenstock in October 2023 to find a pure fashion public markets debut (Puig, which held its IPO in spring 2024 in Spain, owns a handful of luxury labels but is primarily a beauty company).

Consumer brands have been out of fashion with investors since the DTC bubble burst after the pandemic, sending valuations plunging. Investors are wary of making bets on brands that are all too vulnerable to shifts in trends or consumer sentiment, especially when there are so many tempting artificial intelligence startups out there (surely there won’t be any Parades or Beautycounters in that bunch). For brands these days, acquisitions, rather than IPOs, are the preferred (or often, only) exit strategy.

Birkenstock aside, it’s no coincidence that the three other IPOs mentioned in this item took place outside the US. Nothing kills the vibe like volatility, and markets have seen little else since President Donald Trump took office in January.

The Week Ahead wants to hear from you! Send tips, suggestions, complaints and compliments to brian.baskin@businessoffashion.com.