Now that the big debuts are out of the way, brands are racing to roll out marketing strategies to build anticipation for when the clothes and bags hit stores next spring — or at least, ensure customers don’t forget about them in the meantime.
For instance, looks from Jonathan Anderson’s Dior appeared on the red carpet and the cover of Vogue within days of the show. Can brands keep up the momentum?
LVMH’s results this week won’t provide a direct answer — they’ll be reporting for the quarter ending Sept. 30, aka the day before Jonathan Anderson’s debut womenswear show. But executives will probably have something to say about the macro environment where these collections will be sold.
The New Look: In the period immediately after the pandemic, LVMH’s strategy could be summed in one word: scale. Louis Vuitton hit €20 billion ($23 billion) in sales in 2022, with sights set on adding billions more to that total. Dior was on a similar path, emerging as a second profit centre, while smaller labels Loewe and Celine appeared on their way to someday joining them.
We all know what happened next: Consumers grew tired of buying the same old stuff at higher prices, and increasingly over-the-top marketing succeeded only in slowing the slide. It was time to try something different. As Bernstein analyst Luca Solca put it in a recent research note: “Louis Vuitton was quick to realise that ‘more of the same but bigger’ worked to a point … and that what really works is ‘new’ and attention grabbing.”
Scale still matters here. Few other companies could pull off a 10-year partnership with F1 (LVMH brands will be all over the Austin Grand Prix next weekend; for more on this, check out BoF sports correspondent Mike Sykes’ newsletter The Kicks You Wear) — or open stores as big and well-outfitted as the planned Louis Vuitton and Dior flagships in Paris, New York and Los Angeles.
Last week’s debuts were if anything the final piece in the puzzle, albeit the most important one. Morgan Stanley, when it upgraded both LVMH’s and Kering’s stocks last week, argued that if luxury’s creative resurgence leads to a commercial recovery as expected, shoppers are going to return first to the brands they know best, with Louis Vuitton and Dior at the top of the list.
The Big Picture: Even Bernard Arnault can’t control the global economy, or President Donald Trump. Anderson’s take on the Lady Dior will face the same 15 percent tariff as any other Made in Italy product, and will be marketed in the toughest economy since the pandemic (though with the stock market still booming, $7,000 bags may be an easier sell to wealthy consumers).
China isn’t in a much better place. Anecdotally there are signs of Chinese consumer sentiment bottoming out, and Louis Vuitton’s new store in Shanghai — a literal flagship — is a hit. But this optimism has yet to show up in the data; spending dipped during the recent Golden Week holiday. It will be especially interesting to hear how executives talk about that on the call; even minor changes in wording from quarter to quarter can and have moved markets.
Finally, there is the ongoing scandal over allegations of poor labour conditions at Italian manufacturers that has ensnared a growing number of luxury brands, among them LVMH’s Dior and Loro Piana. It remains to be seen how this controversy affects the latter in particular, as the cashmere brand had been a rare bright spot amid the luxury slowdown.
Another New Era for Victoria’s Secret
What’s Happening: The long-suffering lingerie brand holds its next fashion show on Oct. 15.
Nowhere to Go But Up: Victoria’s Secret clearly sees potential for a comeback narrative to take hold. Chief executive Hillary Super has been making the media rounds, telling The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg that the show will usher in a “new era of sexy.”
The goal is to find a middle ground between the L Brands days and the muted marketing that followed Victoria’s Secret’s 2021 spinoff. The pivot has not been subtle; Victoria’s Secret has expanded its “Very Sexy” collection, for instance. But it’s also retaining some of the DNA from that earlier pivot to inclusivity, including in-store “bra fit specialists” and a continued emphasis on extended sizing.
The Right Kind of Attention: The show has the potential to either seal the deal, or offer proof that the brand is beyond fixing.
It’s hard to engineer a universally positive response to a fashion show — just ask any one of the dozen designers who just made their debut in Milan or Paris.
For Victoria’s Secret, cutting through the noise will be victory enough. An early casting announcement of the usual supermodels didn’t make much of an impression (“see the familiar faces!” is not the headline you want). Last week’s reveal that WNBA superstar Angel Reese will be walking generated the right kind of attention, with New York Post declaring the brand had “made history” by casting its first pro athlete.
No Room for Error: If the show is a hit and sales keep climbing, Victoria’s Secret’s second makeover might stick. But if the Angels stumble, watch out. Barington Capital, an activist investor that disclosed a stake in June, is calling for the company’s board to be replaced, and for obstacles to an acquisition to be removed.
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