Three Things To Watch: UNC vs. Pittsburgh

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — A Caleb Wilson-less North Carolina welcomes Pittsburgh (9-16, 2-10 ACC) into the Smith Center on Saturday at 2 p.m. 

Wilson’s fractured left hand, combined with a loss to Miami on Tuesday night in Coral Gables, have changed the tone of the season moving forward. 

The Panthers, in the midst of a four-game losing streak and tied for last in the conference, aren’t likely to offer much of a measuring stick as the Tar Heels adjust to life without their star freshman. Nonetheless, here are three things to keep your eyes on as UNC returns to action on Saturday afternoon…

How Will The Tar Heels Respond?

Replacing Wilson’s production will be a next-to-impossible task, but beginning Saturday, North Carolina must find a way.

Expect Jarin Stevenson to absorb the bulk of Wilson’s frontcourt minutes, which should, in turn, create additional opportunities on the wing for Jonathan Powell and Luka Bogavac. Zayden High should also see an expanded role against the Panthers, now serving as UNC’s lone reserve big man.

Beyond the schematics, though, how UNC will respond emotionally is worth the watch. In addition to losing its best player, North Carolina is now without its most vibrant on-court personality — and how the Tar Heels respond to that loss may prove just as telling as any sort of schematic adjustment Hubert Davis makes.

Pitt’s Putrid Offense

The Panthers arrive in Chapel Hill with the ACC’s third-least efficient offense in conference play (101.3), per KenPom. Pitt has topped 70 points in four of its 12 league games and is averaging 65.9 points per contest against ACC competition. The Panthers feature slow tempo (ranked No. 341 nationally) and poor shooting (ranked outside the Top 200 nationally in two- and three-point shooting percentage, and ranked No. 349 in free throw percentage).

Pitt’s struggling offense — paired with a UNC defense that has actually graded out better with Wilson off the floor — could provide the Tar Heels a manageable entry point into life without their star freshman on the defensive end. 

As Inside Carolina’s Adrian Atkinson detailed, North Carolina has been 7.2 points per 100 possessions better defensively in ACC play with Wilson on the bench — a number that suggests Saturday presents a prime opportunity for the Heels to establish a rhythm on that end.

Pitt’s Recent And Unexpected Success In Chapel Hill

Jeff Capel’s squad arrives at the Smith Center having won three of its last four contests in the building, with the Tar Heels snapping that skid in last season’s 67-66 win.

It’s not as though Pitt has been a juggernaut during that stretch, either. Saturday shapes up as yet another instance of a struggling Pitt team entering the Smith Center with nothing to lose — and looking to steal one from North Carolina.