A golden age of black-market oil shipping may have begun in the Strait of Hormuz as the Iran war enters its second week, with sanctioned and sanctions-dodging tankers now handling a large share of traffic through the critical energy chokepoint.
New data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence shows that shadow fleet vessels — often used to move sanctioned crude from Iran, Russia and Venezuela — now dominate tanker transits through the strait.
That reality stands in sharp contrast to the picture President Donald Trump painted this week.
Speaking Monday evening, Trump declared the campaign a near-complete military success — claiming Iran’s naval fleet had been sunk, its missile capability reduced to “about 10% maybe less,” and its drone manufacturing “being hit one after another.”
He pledged the Strait of Hormuz “is going to remain safe,” said the US is offering political risk insurance to tankers operating in the Gulf to help keep global supply flowing.
Shipping data suggests the situation at sea looks far less stable.
Shadow Tankers Now Handle Nearly Half of Hormuz Transits
According to an analysis published Monday by Tomer Raanan, maritime risk analyst at Lloyd’s List, approximately half of all tankers and gas carriers that transited the Strait of Hormuz between March 1 and 8 were part of the so-called shadow fleet.
Bridget Diakun, senior risk and compliance analyst at Lloyd’s List, indicated that total transits have fallen by roughly 90% in tonnage terms compared with pre-war levels.
The reason the shadow fleet is expanding is straightforward: mainstream shipping companies are increasingly unwilling to risk Hormuz transits during wartime.
‘Show Some Guts’ — And The Maritime Industry’s Response
President Trump has urged mainstream shipowners to change course.
In an interview with Fox News, he told them plainly: “These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts. There’s nothing to be afraid of… they have no Navy, we sunk all their ships.”
The reaction from the maritime industry has been far less confident.
Shipping executives say the prospect of U.S. naval escorts — first raised by Trump last week — has done little to restore confidence because signals from Washington remain inconsistent.
According to Lloyd’s List reporting, shipping industry officials were told in no uncertain terms by the U.S. Navy that there would be no naval escorts — only for Trump to post on social media the same day that escorts would indeed be provided.
The Market Read
For investors, the emerging picture has two distinct layers.
The surface layer — oil supplies still transiting and Trump calling the war in Iran nearly over— supports a risk-on relief trade.
The structural layer is more interesting: the routing of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz is being quietly rewritten in real time, with shadow fleet operators capturing market share that mainstream shipping is ceding by the day.
For now, hundreds of ships remain anchored on both sides of the waterway.
The biggest single question for global energy markets — how and when the Strait of Hormuz becomes safe for mainstream shipping again — has no clear answer.
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