Ukraine Said It Hit Strategic Russian Planes Not Easily Replaced

Ukraine launched a daring attack on multiple Russian airfields on Sunday, claiming hits on 41 Russian aircraft, including certain strategic planes that aren’t easily replaced.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said that its operatives positioned drones close to airfields in trucks before releasing them to target Russian aircraft in “Operation Spiderweb.” Videos, including drone footage obtained by Business Insider, showed burning Russian bombers.

The SBU said aircraft hit included the A-50 airborne early warning and control plane, Tupolev Tu-95, Tu-22, and Tu-160 bombers, An-12 transport aircraft, and the Il-78 refueling tanker.,

Key Russian aircraft

Any A-50 loss means a loss of situational awareness for Russia’s air force. These important air assets amplify the effectiveness of Russia’s air force by detecting enemy aircraft, missiles, air defense systems, and ground targets. They also act as mobile command-and-control centers for directing attacks.

Ukraine has shot down multiple A-50s during Russia’s invasion, meaning Russia likely only has a handful left. These aircraft are estimated to cost around $300 million each.

Among the other planes that Ukraine said it hit are ones Russia has used to fire missiles in its invasion.

The Tu-22M is a Soviet-era bomber that its manufacturer, Tupolev, describes as a “long-range supersonic missile carrier bomber” designed to strike ground and sea targets using guided missiles and aerial bombs.

The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service told BBC Ukraine last year that it carries the Kh-22 missiles, which have caused tremendous damage to Ukrainian cities like Odesa.

Ukraine has previously claimed to have destroyed some Tu-22Ms, both in the air and at an airfield deep inside Russia. Ukraine estimates the planes cost around $100 million each.

The Tu-95 is a Cold War-era long-range turboprop bomber that can carry eight long-range cruise missiles armed with either conventional or nuclear warheads. Russia has also used it for attacks on Ukraine.

Russia also uses the Tu-160 — a heavy supersonic long-range strategic bomber first introduced during the Soviet era that is able to carry nuclear and conventional cruise missiles — in its attacks.

Justin Bonk, an airpower expert at the Royal United Services Institute, told Business Insider that both the Tu-95 and the Tu-160 had been “heavily tasked” with firing Kh-101 missiles at Ukraine.

The SBU said the damage inflicted by its attack could be $7 billion, a figure that has not been independently verified. The head of the agency, Lt. Gen. Vasyl Maliuk, said that the attack was meant to curb Russian attacks on Ukraine.

“The adversary bombed our country almost every night from these aircraft, and today they have felt that retribution is inevitable,” Maliuk said. The general said the security agency “is doing and will do everything possible to protect Ukraine.”

Hard to replace

Dollar figures are tossed around for the planes Ukraine hit, but Russia can’t replace some of these aircraft easily.

Production of the Tu-95 and Tu-22M stopped after the USSR collapsed in 1991. Russia also no longer makes A-50s, though it said last year that production may restart. Tu-160s are still made, but slowly. Reports indicate only two have been made since 2022.

Bronk said replacing the losses will be “very challenging” for Russia.

“The Tu-95 has not been produced for more than 30 years and production/modernisation of the Tu-160 is at a very limited scale,” he said in emailed comments to BI.

Maliuk said that “34% of strategic cruise missile carriers at the main Russian airfields were hit.” Imagery from the sites confirms some of the reported destruction.

Satellite images from company Capella Space and seen by Reuters show what experts told the outlet appeared to be several destroyed and damaged Tu-95s and Tu-22s.

A win for Ukraine

Bronk said that the destruction that can be seen visually shows “this is a stunning success for Ukraine’s special services.” He pointed to confirmation of the destruction of around eight Tu-95 bombers, a Tu-22M3, and several other aircraft.

The 41 aircraft figure given by Ukraine is being debated. Some analyses based on visual evidence that is available so far have pointed to a lower figure.

Bronk said that if even half of Ukraine’s claim of 41 aircraft were damaged or destroyed, “it will have a significant impact” on Russia’s ability to “keep up its regular large scale cruise missile salvos against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure” while also keeping up its nuclear deterrence and signaling patrols against NATO and Japan.

How the attack affects the battlefield, where Ukraine is facing a relentless push from Russia’s larger military and dampening US support, remains to be seen.

Dan Grazier, a security expert at the Stimson Center, told BI that he was skeptical that it was “really going to move the needle in one way or the other” on the battlefield.

That said, the attack is still significant and rewrites the rules of warfare, experts say.

The SBU said the attack hit four Russian airfields simultaneously across three time zones, explaining that the plan allowed it to hit the largest number of Russian aircraft at the same time.

It said it brought drones in mobile containers into Russia, hiding the drones on trucks. The container roofs were opened remotely “at the right moment” and the drones struck their targets. The details of the operation have not been independently verified.

It said the operation was planned for more than a year and a half.

Tim Robinson, a military aviation specialist at the UK’s Royal Aeronautical Society, told BI the attack will spook Western air forces. “If you’re an Air Force chief and you are not lying awake at night thinking about how to protect you, you’re going to lose the next war.”

And it’s a statement of intent from Ukraine.

Maliuk said “the enemy thought it could bomb Ukraine and kill Ukrainians endlessly and with impunity. This is not the case. We will respond to russian terror and destroy the enemy everywhere — at sea, in the air and on land.”