The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite indices managed to recover most of the loss after a weak start. The Dow Jones fell about 1.9 per cent and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite indices fell 2.2 and 2.5 per cent initially last week. But thereafter they recouped most of the loss to close marginally lower for the week. Broadly, the price action on the weekly chart continues to appear rangebound.
On the currency front, the dollar index was knocked down quite badly last week. The chances of a bullish breakout that we had hinted at last week does not seem to be happening soon. US President Donald Trump going back and forth on the tariff threats dragged the greenback lower last week.
Dow Jones (49,098.71)
As seen from the weekly chart, the Dow Jones is stuck between 48,430 and 49,635 over the last three weeks. A breakout on either side of this range will decide the next move.
A break below 48,430 can take the Dow down to 48,000 and 47,650. On the other hand, a rise above 49,635 can see 50,500 and higher levels.
We reiterate that 51,000-51,400 is a strong resistance zone which can cap the upside. So, we must turn cautious once the Dow approaches this hurdle.
S&P 500 (6,915.61)
The S&P 500 has a crucial support in the 6,800-6,760 region. Resistance is around 7,000 for now. So broadly, 6,760-7,000 can be the trading range in the short term.
If the index manages to breach 7,000, a rise to 7,100 can be seen. A decisive break above 7,100 is needed to see an extended rise to 7,400.
In case the index breaks the support at 6,760, it will come under pressure for a fall to 6,600. Failure to breach 7,100 and a reversal from there will also keep the danger of seeing 6,600 on the downside over the medium term.
NASDAQ Composite (23,501.24)
The NASDAQ Composite index is managing to hold above the 23,000-22,900 support zone. The trading range for now will be 22,900-23,800. A strong break above 23,800 and a subsequent rise past 24,000 is needed to gain fresh momentum. Only then the doors will open to see a rise to 26,000-26,500.
As long as the index stays below 24,000, the danger of breaking below 22,900 will remain alive. A break below 22,900 will drag the NASDAQ Composite index down to 22,000 and even 21,500 in the coming weeks. This fall can happen swiftly.
Dollar Index (97.45)
The dollar index has declined sharply breaking below the key support level of 98.50. This was contrary to our expectation. The fall last week has negated the chance of the bullish inverted head and shoulder formation that we had indicated last week. That in turn has also dashed the hopes of a rise above 100.
Immediate support is now in the 97.20-97 region. If the index manages to bounce back from this support zone, a relief rise to 98 and 98.50 is possible. But a break below 97 can drag the index down to 96. The price action around 97 will need a close watch this week.
Treasury Yield
The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.23 per cent) surged to a high of 4.31 per cent last week but failed to sustain. It has come down giving away all the gains. A dip to test the 4.2-4.18 per cent support zone is likely to be seen this week. We expect the yield to sustain above this support zone and rise back towards 4.3-4.35 per cent again.
As mentioned last week, a decisive break above 4.35 per cent will be very bullish. It can then take the US 10Yr Treasury Yield up to 4.6 per cent in the coming months. This bullish view will be negated only if the yield declines below 4.18 per cent. In that case, a fall to 4.1-4 per cent can be seen again.
Published on January 24, 2026
