US Market Outlook: Mixed Picture

The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a bullish breakout in the past week thereby ending the prolonged sideways consolidation. The index surged 2.5 per cent last week.

However, the S&P 500 is still stuck inside its range, and the NASDAQ Composite index is showing some signs of weakness. The S&P 500 was down 0.1 per cent and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.84 per cent.

Overall, the divergence in the US benchmark indices is a mixed picture. So, we may have to wait and see whether the rise in the Dow Jones seen last week is sustaining or not.

Dow Jones (50,115.67)

The strong rise last week indicates that the broader uptrend has resumed after a pause. Immediate support will be in the 49,800-49,700 region. The Dow Jones can rise to 50,800 in the short term. The upside can extend even up to 51,000-51,100.

From a big picture, 51,000-51,400 is a strong resistance zone. A break above 51,400 might be difficult. We see high chances for the Dow Jones to reverse lower anywhere in the 51,000-51,400 region. That can drag the index down to 48,300-48,000 eventually.

So, this is not the time to become overly bullish on the Dow. As the index moves further up from here, more caution is needed. Also, things have to be looked at from the sell side of the market.

S&P 500 (6,932.30)

The 6,760-7,000 range continues to remain intact. The S&P 500 index oscillated well within that in the past week. As such, there is no major change in our view. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity.

A fall below 6,760 will indicate a bearish trend reversal. It will then open the doors for a fresh fall to 6,600.

On the other hand, 7,100 can be seen on the upside if the index breaches 7,000. A sustained rise above 7,100 is needed to see much higher levels of 7,400. Failure to breach 7,100 and a reversal from there will also keep the index under pressure to see 6,600 on the downside eventually.

NASDAQ Composite (23,031.21)

The fall below 23,100 last week is giving an early sign of a turnaround. So, a little caution is needed. The region between 23,100 and 23,150 will be a crucial resistance for this week. Failure to rise past this hurdle anPOd a fall thereafter will keep the index under pressure. In that case, there is a danger of seeing 22,000 and even lower levels on the downside.

A sustained rise above 23,100 is needed to ease the downside pressure and go up to 23,400.

Dollar outlook

The dollar index (97.68) witnessed some follow-through rise last week. Immediate support is around 97.25. If it manages to sustain above this support, then, the chances are high to see a break above 98. Such a break can take the index higher to 98.50 initially and then to 99-99.50 eventually in the coming weeks.

The index has to break below 97.25 to come under pressure. If that happens, a fall to 96.20-96 can be seen again.

Treasury Yield

The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.21 per cent) witnessed a sharp fall during the week breaking below 4.2 per cent. However, it has bounced back from the low around 4.16 per cent. The immediate outlook is unclear.

If the bounce sustains, we can see a rise back to 4.3 per cent again. From a big picture, 4.3-4.35 will be a crucial resistance zone. Ideally, the US 10Yr Treasury Yield must breach 4.35 per cent to gain bullish momentum.

On the other hand, failure to get a follow-through rise and fall below 4.15 per cent from here can be negative. In that case, the yield can fall to 4.1-4.05 per cent. It is a wait and watch situation.

Published on February 7, 2026