Dow Jones, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indices recovered last week and closed in green. The Dow Jones seems to be struggling to get a strong follow-through rise after making a bullish breakout a couple of weeks ago. The S&P 500 seems to be turning down gradually. The price action in the coming weeks will need a very close watch. The NASDAQ Composite looks much weaker among the lot.
The US Supreme Court striking down the tariffs levied by the President Donald Trump has given a push for the equities on Friday. We will have to wait and see if this can sustain or not.
Dow Jones (49,625.97)
Support is in the 49,200-49,000 region. The Dow has to sustain above this support in order to go up towards 50,700-50,800 in the short term.
In case the index breaks below 49,000 from here, a fall to 48,000 is possible.
Broadly, 48,000-51,000 can be the wide trading range. A break below 48,000 will turn the outlook bearish for a fall to 45,000.
On the other hand, a decisive break above 51,000 is needed to clear the way for a rise to 55,000 and higher.
Considering the lack of strength in S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite, we prefer to remain cautious on the Dow Jones rather than being bullish. So, it is better to look at the market from the sell side rather than making fresh buys at the moment.
S&P 500 (6,909.51)
The index has been broadly range-bound between 6,700 and 7,000 since December last year. However, a close look at the price action on the charts indicate that the index is gradually turning down.
A fall below 6,770 could be an initial bearish signal. A subsequent break below 6,700 will confirm the bearish trend reversal. It will then increase the danger of seeing 6,600-6,500 and even lower levels going forward.
A break above 7,000 and a subsequent rise past 7,100 is needed to negate the aforementioned fall. Only then the upside will open up for a fresh rise to 7,400-7,500.
NASDAQ Composite (22,886.07)
The bounce last week has given some relief for the NASDAQ Composite index. However, the view remains negative.
The region between 23,000 and 23,300 will be a strong resistance zone which can cap the upside. NASDAQ Composite index can fall to 21,900 or even 21,600 from here.
A strong break above 23,300 is needed to avoid this fall and take the index higher to 24,000.
Ideally, the index has to get a decisive break above 24,000 to bring back the bullishness. Only then a fresh rally to 26,000 and higher is possible.
But on the charts, a fall to 21,600 first looks more imminent from here.
Dollar Index outlook
The dollar index (97.79) has been hovering around 97 since the beginning of this month. The trading range so far this month has been 96.50-98.10. A breakout on either side this range will determine the next move.
A break above 98.10 can take the index higher to 99.50. On the other hand, a fall below 96.50 can drag it down to 95. We will have to wait and see.
Treasury Yield
The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.09 per cent) is managing to hold well above 4 per cent. Cluster of supports are there in the 4-3.9 per cent region. So, the downside could be limited even if the yield falls below 4 per cent from here.
Immediate resistance is around 4.13 per cent. A break above it can take the US 10Yr Yield higher to 4.2-4.25 per cent.
From a long-term perspective, as long as the yield sustains above 3.9 per cent, the bias will remain bullish to breach the 4.3-4.35 resistance zone. Such a break can take the US 10Yr Yield up to 4.5-4.6 in the coming months.
Published on February 21, 2026
