US Tax Refunds Trending Higher Early This Season, Early IRS Data Shows

Americans are on track for larger tax refunds this year, early data suggests, but filing activity and processing remain lighter than last year.

According to the Internal Revenue Service‘s (IRS) data released on Friday, the average refund among returns processed so far climbed to about $2,290, up 10.9% from the same period in 2025.

Refunds: Bigger But Early

The IRS reported that just over 7.4 million refunds totaling roughly $16.95 billion have been issued since the 2026 tax season opened on Jan. 26 — a modest 1.9% increase in total dollars refunded compared with early 2025.

Earlier on Friday, Treasury Secretary and acting IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that refunds were up 22%. But it was unclear how many days of returns Bessent’s figure reflected or what comparison period he used.

However, most filing season reports — including the Feb. 6 snapshot — exclude refunds tied to key refundable credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) because the IRS holds those payments under the PATH Act until mid-February. That omission typically suppresses early refund totals and average refund figures, which generally rise once most credits start issuing.

The agency noted on Friday that “average refund amounts are strong,” and the figure will increase in the Feb. 27 release once it starts issuing refunds that include EITC and ACTC.

Meanwhile, returns received and processed this season are both down versus a year ago — total returns received dropped about 5.2%, and returns processed are off more than 12% through early February.

What This Means for Taxpayers

The early bump in average refunds likely reflects a combination of retroactive tax changes, withholding mismatches, and higher deductions enacted in late-2025 tax reforms, which analysts project could push this year’s average refund significantly above prior years’ levels as more returns are processed.