Online shopping has surged in recent years — and so have returns. The ease of clicking “add to cart” has led many consumers to second-guess their purchases and send items back.
But who’s returning the most? Surprisingly, it’s not bargain hunters or budget-conscious shoppers — it’s wealthier households, driven by what experts call “speculative shopping.”
A 2025 Bank of America Institute [1] found that higher-income households returned 5.3% of their purchases, compared with just 3.7% for lower-income households. And with return rates rising overall — Optoro reports that 46% of consumers now return items multiple times per month — this shift is forcing retailers to rethink how they handle their policies on refunds, shipping, and logistics.
Wealthier consumers are more likely to buy speculatively — purchasing items they’re unsure about with intent to return some or all of them. This includes practices like bracketing, where shoppers order multiple sizes, colors, or versions of a product, and keep only what works.
“That’s likely to be somewhat easier for someone who has a higher income to do,” said David Tinsley, senior economist at the Bank of America Institute. In contrast, lower-income shoppers are less inclined to tie up money in purchases they may not keep.
This trend isn’t new — it’s the online version of a fitting room. The difference? Returns in e-commerce come with steep costs. Unlike in-store returns, which might take a few minutes to restock, online returns involve shipping, processing, and repackaging expenses.
In 2024 alone, U.S. retailers expected nearly 17% of total sales to be returned, costing an eye-watering $890 billion, according to the National Retail Federation and Happy Returns [3].
To offset these rising costs, many retailers are tightening their return policies:
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Charging for return fees: About two-thirds of retailers implemented fees for at least one return method in 2024.
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Shortening return windows: What was once a 180-day return policy can now be as short as two days.
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Restricting returnable items: Some categories — like clearance or swimwears — are now final sale.
There’s also an environmental push behind the crackdowns. Return shipping increases carbon emissions and packaging waste, prompting some brands to favor store credit or exchanges over full refunds.
Read more: Rich, young Americans are ditching stocks — here are the alternative assets they’re banking on instead
Speculative buying can feel like a smart way to shop, but it comes with risks. For example, stricter return windows, restocking fees, or worse — forgetting to return something and getting stuck with an unwanted, expensive item.
Instead, here are smarter ways to shop online more confidently and avoid unnecessary returns:
Before clicking “add to cart”, check reviews across multiple sites. Look for feedback on fit, quality, and common issues. Photos and videos from real buyers can give you a more accurate sense of what to expect.
Shopping in person allows you to try or test items before purchasing. Many local stores offer easier, often free returns since there are no shipping costs. Even if you ultimately buy online, seeing the item in-store first can help you avoid returns.
Never assume returns are free. Review the policy for fees, time limits, or item exclusions — especially on clothing or big-ticket items. With return rules tightening, it’s essential to know the terms before you commit.
If you think you might return something, set a reminder in your phone or calendar. This prevents missed windows and unwanted charges — especially for returnable goods or free trial periods.
Some credit cards offer extended return protection or let you dispute a charge if the item doesn’t arrive or isn’t as described. Just be sure to check the card’s terms to know what’s covered.
While speculative shopping may be manageable for households with higher disposable income, it’s not always the most cost-effective option. A little research before you buy can save you money, time, and frustration — and help you shop with more confidence.
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[1]. Bank of America Institute. “Buy Now, Return Later: Retailers pay for customer loyalty”
[2]. Optoro. “With Returns Fraud & Abuse on the Rise, and 69% of Shoppers Admitting to Wardrobing, with 64% Doing So At Least Once a Month”
[3]. National Retail Federation and Happy Returns. NRF and Happy Returns 2024 Consumer Returns in the Retail Industry
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
