Weekly Rupee View: Support zone in focus

The rupee, which had shown some signs of stability earlier in the month, has come under renewed pressure in recent sessions. The local currency has lost about 1 per cent over the past week, reflecting persistent weakness despite a broadly soft dollar backdrop. Notably, it hit a record low of 91.97 on January 23 and on Tuesday it closed at 91.73.

The key drag continues to be capital outflows. According to NSDL data, net foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows stood at around $550 million over the last week, spanning both equity and debt segments. In January so far, the net outflows have been $3.3 billion. This steady exit of foreign funds has weighed on the rupee and limited its ability to benefit from dollar weakness.

Broader risk sentiment has remained cautious, with investors staying on the sidelines amid lingering global uncertainties. As a result, the rupee has struggled to find meaningful support, even as domestic factors remain relatively unchanged.

From a technical perspective as well, the bias remains weak. But the chart suggests that the rupee has a potential support between 91.75 and 92. Below is the technical analysis.

Chart 

The rupee marked a low of 91.97 last week. That said, the price action since last Thursday shows that there is a pause in the downtrend. The chart shows that there is a support between 91.75 and 92.

In case there is a recovery on the back of this, the rupee could appreciate to 91. A rally past this can take it to 90.60. However, if the support at 92 is breached, the downtrend can extend to 92.50 and 93.

It largely depends on how the dollar reacts. The dollar index, which is now hovering around 97, has a support at 96.50 and 96. If these levels are breached, the dollar index could see a quick decline to 95. This can give the rupee a breather, possibly lifting it to 91.

But in case the dollar index recovers from the current level, it can rise to 98 and possibly to 98.60. In such a scenario, the rupee is likely to mark new lows.

Outlook 

Going ahead, considering that the bear trend in the dollar index remains and that there is a support for the rupee, the local currency can see a minor uptick, possibly to 91, where the recovery is likely to be capped.

Published on January 27, 2026