Bitcoin
(BTC) price is experiencing renewed momentum at $114,817 as of today (Monday),
September 15, 2025, with the cryptocurrency consolidating around the crucial
$115,000-$116,000 range ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated rate
decision on September 17.
This surge
comes amid a confluence of technical indicators, institutional accumulation
patterns, and macroeconomic factors that are driving Bitcoin price
analysis toward increasingly bullish Bitcoin price predictions for
the remainder of 2025.
Why Is Bitcoin Surging
Today? Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Drive Bitcoin Momentum
At the time
of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $114,817, down 0.5% after earlier testing the
$116,757 level at the start of the session. What is driving BTC’s strength at
the beginning of the new week, pushing it to the highest levels in more than a
month?
The primary
catalyst behind why Bitcoin is surging today centers on overwhelming
market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a 95% probability of at
least a 25 basis point reduction on September 17. Recent Producer Price Index
data showing inflation cooling to 2.6% versus expectations of 3.3% has
strengthened the case for monetary easing, creating favorable conditions for
risk assets including Bitcoin.
Bitcoin
price analysis reveals that the cryptocurrency has gained over 8% in the
past two weeks, defying historical September weakness patterns that typically
see Bitcoin decline during this month. The break above psychological resistance
at $115,000 demonstrates renewed institutional confidence, particularly as spot
Bitcoin ETF inflows reached nearly $2 billion in September after August
outflows.
Bitcoin price today. Source: CoinMarketCap.com
Digital
assets meet tradfi in London at the fmls25
Technical Analysis: MACD
Golden Cross Signals Major Rally
A critical
development in Bitcoin price analysis is the formation of a MACD
golden cross pattern on September 5, marking the first such bullish signal
since April 2025. This technical formation occurs when the MACD line crosses
above its signal line while both remain below zero, historically preceding
significant upward price movements.
Bitcoin
price predictions based on this pattern suggest potential for a 40% rally
similar to April’s performance, which would target Bitcoin price levels
around $160,000 by October. Popular trader BitBull highlighted that “the
last time such a golden cross occurred was in April,” when Bitcoin
subsequently reached new all-time highs above $124,000.
More money entered Bitcoin in the last 18 months than in its first 15 years combined.
That’s what Realized Cap shows:
▪️ 2009–2024 (15y): $435B
▪️ 2024–2025 (1.5y): $625BRealized Cap = the value of $BTC at the price they last moved on-chain → a direct measure of capital… pic.twitter.com/3vK0KVVtfg
— BitBull (@AkaBull_) September 15, 2025
Current
technical levels show Bitcoin price facing immediate resistance at
$116,755 with support established around $114,500 at the 50-day moving average.
The convergence of these moving averages creates a narrowing channel that
typically precedes decisive breakout moves, according to technical analysts
tracking the cryptocurrency.
Whale Activity and Market
Structure Analysis
Recent Bitcoin
price analysis reveals significant whale activity that initially created
selling pressure but has since shifted toward accumulation. Data from
CryptoQuant shows that over 116,000 BTC worth approximately $12.7 billion
exited major wallets during the past month, representing the largest
distribution since July 2022.
However,
this selling pressure appears to be stabilizing as mid-sized whales holding
100-1,000 BTC have accumulated over 65,000 BTC in early September, providing
structural support for Bitcoin price above $110,000. The Holder
Retention Rate has reached a 2025 peak of 80.49%, indicating strong
“hodling” sentiment among long-term investors despite short-term
volatility.
One notable
whale that previously swapped $4 billion worth of Bitcoin for Ethereum has
resumed selling, depositing 1,176 BTC worth $136 million into trading
platforms. While such movements can create temporary downward pressure, the
overall institutional sentiment remains constructive ahead of the Federal
Reserve decision.
Simon Peters, crypto analyst at eToro, Source: LinekdIn
Expert Bitcoin Price
Predictions and Market Outlook
Leading
analysts are providing increasingly bullish Bitcoin price predictions for
the remainder of 2025. Simon Peters from eToro notes that “Bitcoin rose 4%
last week, breaking back above $116,000, following softer inflation data from
the US,” emphasizing that institutional investors are “rotating back
into bitcoin with renewed confidence.”
Paul Howard, Wincent
Paul
Howard, Director at Wincent, observes institutional demand stating, “We
have seen a lot of institutional demand for Wincent OTC running into the
weekend for the majors,” while noting that “trading in the
$110,000-$120,000 range for BTC seems to be a reliable channel and opportunity
for range bound trading.”
Ryan Lee,
Chief Analyst at Bitget, projects that “Bitcoin could climb toward
$150,000–$200,000 by year-end” under favorable Federal Reserve policy
conditions, while Ethereum may advance to “$5,800–$8,000 range on the back
of ETF rotations and network expansion.”
Bitcoin
price predictions from major financial institutions remain overwhelmingly
bullish, with Standard Chartered targeting $200,000 by end-2025, while analysts
at Bernstein expect Bitcoin to reach similar levels by early 2026. VanEck
anticipates Bitcoin climbing to $180,000 by 2025, with long-term projections
reaching $2 million by 2050.
Wall
Street Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2025
Institution/Analyst | 2025 Price Target | Timeframe | Methodology/Rationale |
Standard Chartered | $200,000 | End-2025 | Institutional adoption, regulatory clarity |
Bernstein | $200,000 | Early 2026 | Asset |
VanEck | $180,000 | 2025 | Long-term institutional flows |
Compass Point | $160,000 | Year-end | ETF adoption, technical analysis |
Benchmark Capital | $164,000 | 2025 | Institutional inflows, supply dynamics |
BTIG | $150,000 | End-2025 | Conservative institutional adoption |
HC Wainwright | $150,000 | 2025 | Steady growth scenario |
TD Cowen | $144,000 | Year-end | Conservative macroeconomic outlook |
Stifel | $122,000 | 2025 | Limited upside, cautious approach |
Barclays | $116,000 | End-2025 | Most conservative, macro uncertainty |
Wall Street Average | $156,000 | 2025 | Consensus across major institutions |
Technical Resistance and
Support Levels on Bitcoin Chart
According
to my Bitcoin price technical analysis, there are few critical levels that will
determine the trajectory of the anticipated rally. Immediate resistance sits at
$116,000-$117,000, representing the upper boundary of the current consolidation
range. A decisive break above this level would target the $120,000 zone, which
analysts view as the gateway to new all-time highs.
Key support
levels include the $115,000 psychological level, reinforced by the 50-day
exponential moving average at approximately $114,500. A break below this zone
could trigger a retest of $112,000-$113,000, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci
retracement from recent highs.
The
technical setup suggests that Bitcoin price must maintain above
$114,000 on a weekly closing basis to preserve bullish momentum, according to
popular analyst Rekt Capital. He emphasizes that “the goal is for Bitcoin
to reclaim $114k into support first, because that’s what would enable the
premium-buying necessary to get price above $117k later on.”
Historical Context and
Seasonal Patterns
Why Bitcoin
is surging today also reflects a departure from typical seasonal weakness
patterns. Historically, September ranks as Bitcoin’s worst-performing month,
yet 2025 has seen the cryptocurrency gain over 6.79% month-to-date. This
performance suggests that macroeconomic factors are overriding seasonal trends,
potentially setting up a strong finish to the year.
Bitcoin
price predictions incorporating historical cycle analysis suggest that the
current consolidation mirrors previous bull market patterns where initial
resistance breakouts led to exponential gains. The convergence of technical
indicators, institutional adoption, and favorable monetary policy creates
conditions similar to previous major rallies in 2020-2021.
My
technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin remains within the same consolidation
pattern since May, though recent action shows important developments. The early
September decline toward July lows around $107,000 was followed by a recovery
toward $116,000 resistance tested on Monday’s session. While most of this move
was subsequently retraced with Bitcoin declining 0.5% to $114,755, the
established resistance at $116,000 from Friday, September 12, remains the key
level to watch.
Looking
ahead, Bitcoin faces logical resistance at $120,000 (July highs) and ultimate
targets around August’s $124,500 peak. Critical support zones remain very close
to current prices, specifically the $113,500-$112,000 range encompassing the
50-day moving average and early August lows with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Additional support lies at August lows near $107,000 and the 38.2% Fibonacci
level combined with the 200-day moving average around $105,000, coinciding with
early July lows.
While the
200-day moving average typically serves as my ultimate determinant of bullish
versus bearish market conditions, I would only change my Bitcoin outlook if
price drops below the six-figure psychological support at $100,000, which
coincides with the 50% retracement and June lows. Above these levels, I
continue to view current action as a technical correction enabling Bitcoin
accumulation at attractive prices, maintaining expectations for a return to
historical maximums or higher by year-end.
Bitcoin price chart technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis: Key Levels and Targets
Technical Level | Price Range | Significance | Action Required |
Immediate Resistance | $116,000-$117,000 | Upper | Break and |
Key Resistance | $120,000 | July highs, psychological level | Gateway |
Ultimate Target | $124,500 | August 2025 ATH | Historical resistance zone |
Current Support | $114,500-$115,000 | 50-day EMA, psychological level | Weekly |
Critical Support | $112,000-$113,000 | Early August lows, 23.6% Fib | Key level |
Major Support | $107,000-$108,000 | July lows, monthly support | Critical |
Bear Market Signal | $100,000 | 50% retracement, June lows | Break |
Can Bitcoin Fall Further?
Despite
bullish Bitcoin price predictions, several risk factors could impact the
anticipated rally. Options market data shows that while downside fears have
eased substantially, with seven-day call/put skews recovering to nearly neutral
from bearish levels, volatility remains elevated ahead of the Federal Reserve
decision[web source needed].
A surprise
50 basis point rate cut could trigger what derivatives analyst Greg Magadini
describes as “a massive +gamma BUY signal for ETH, SOL and BTC,”
potentially accelerating the move toward $160,000 targets[web source needed].
Conversely, a more dovish 25 basis point cut aligns with current expectations
and would likely support a “continued calm grind higher” for Bitcoin.
The
cryptocurrency market faces potential headwinds from ongoing whale
distribution, seasonal volatility patterns, and the possibility that rate cut
expectations are already fully priced into current levels. However, the
combination of technical breakout patterns, institutional accumulation, and
favorable macroeconomic conditions suggests that Bitcoin price is
well-positioned for continued gains through the remainder of 2025.
Bitcoin
price analysis indicates that the convergence of MACD golden cross
signals, Federal Reserve easing expectations, and institutional adoption trends
creates a compelling bullish case for the cryptocurrency’s near-term outlook,
with Bitcoin price predictions targeting $160,000-$200,000
representing increasingly achievable milestones as market conditions continue
to improve.
Bitcoin
(BTC) price is experiencing renewed momentum at $114,817 as of today (Monday),
September 15, 2025, with the cryptocurrency consolidating around the crucial
$115,000-$116,000 range ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated rate
decision on September 17.
This surge
comes amid a confluence of technical indicators, institutional accumulation
patterns, and macroeconomic factors that are driving Bitcoin price
analysis toward increasingly bullish Bitcoin price predictions for
the remainder of 2025.
Why Is Bitcoin Surging
Today? Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Drive Bitcoin Momentum
At the time
of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $114,817, down 0.5% after earlier testing the
$116,757 level at the start of the session. What is driving BTC’s strength at
the beginning of the new week, pushing it to the highest levels in more than a
month?
The primary
catalyst behind why Bitcoin is surging today centers on overwhelming
market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a 95% probability of at
least a 25 basis point reduction on September 17. Recent Producer Price Index
data showing inflation cooling to 2.6% versus expectations of 3.3% has
strengthened the case for monetary easing, creating favorable conditions for
risk assets including Bitcoin.
Bitcoin
price analysis reveals that the cryptocurrency has gained over 8% in the
past two weeks, defying historical September weakness patterns that typically
see Bitcoin decline during this month. The break above psychological resistance
at $115,000 demonstrates renewed institutional confidence, particularly as spot
Bitcoin ETF inflows reached nearly $2 billion in September after August
outflows.
Bitcoin price today. Source: CoinMarketCap.com
Digital
assets meet tradfi in London at the fmls25
Technical Analysis: MACD
Golden Cross Signals Major Rally
A critical
development in Bitcoin price analysis is the formation of a MACD
golden cross pattern on September 5, marking the first such bullish signal
since April 2025. This technical formation occurs when the MACD line crosses
above its signal line while both remain below zero, historically preceding
significant upward price movements.
Bitcoin
price predictions based on this pattern suggest potential for a 40% rally
similar to April’s performance, which would target Bitcoin price levels
around $160,000 by October. Popular trader BitBull highlighted that “the
last time such a golden cross occurred was in April,” when Bitcoin
subsequently reached new all-time highs above $124,000.
More money entered Bitcoin in the last 18 months than in its first 15 years combined.
That’s what Realized Cap shows:
▪️ 2009–2024 (15y): $435B
▪️ 2024–2025 (1.5y): $625BRealized Cap = the value of $BTC at the price they last moved on-chain → a direct measure of capital… pic.twitter.com/3vK0KVVtfg
— BitBull (@AkaBull_) September 15, 2025
Current
technical levels show Bitcoin price facing immediate resistance at
$116,755 with support established around $114,500 at the 50-day moving average.
The convergence of these moving averages creates a narrowing channel that
typically precedes decisive breakout moves, according to technical analysts
tracking the cryptocurrency.
Whale Activity and Market
Structure Analysis
Recent Bitcoin
price analysis reveals significant whale activity that initially created
selling pressure but has since shifted toward accumulation. Data from
CryptoQuant shows that over 116,000 BTC worth approximately $12.7 billion
exited major wallets during the past month, representing the largest
distribution since July 2022.
However,
this selling pressure appears to be stabilizing as mid-sized whales holding
100-1,000 BTC have accumulated over 65,000 BTC in early September, providing
structural support for Bitcoin price above $110,000. The Holder
Retention Rate has reached a 2025 peak of 80.49%, indicating strong
“hodling” sentiment among long-term investors despite short-term
volatility.
One notable
whale that previously swapped $4 billion worth of Bitcoin for Ethereum has
resumed selling, depositing 1,176 BTC worth $136 million into trading
platforms. While such movements can create temporary downward pressure, the
overall institutional sentiment remains constructive ahead of the Federal
Reserve decision.
Simon Peters, crypto analyst at eToro, Source: LinekdIn
Expert Bitcoin Price
Predictions and Market Outlook
Leading
analysts are providing increasingly bullish Bitcoin price predictions for
the remainder of 2025. Simon Peters from eToro notes that “Bitcoin rose 4%
last week, breaking back above $116,000, following softer inflation data from
the US,” emphasizing that institutional investors are “rotating back
into bitcoin with renewed confidence.”
Paul Howard, Wincent
Paul
Howard, Director at Wincent, observes institutional demand stating, “We
have seen a lot of institutional demand for Wincent OTC running into the
weekend for the majors,” while noting that “trading in the
$110,000-$120,000 range for BTC seems to be a reliable channel and opportunity
for range bound trading.”
Ryan Lee,
Chief Analyst at Bitget, projects that “Bitcoin could climb toward
$150,000–$200,000 by year-end” under favorable Federal Reserve policy
conditions, while Ethereum may advance to “$5,800–$8,000 range on the back
of ETF rotations and network expansion.”
Bitcoin
price predictions from major financial institutions remain overwhelmingly
bullish, with Standard Chartered targeting $200,000 by end-2025, while analysts
at Bernstein expect Bitcoin to reach similar levels by early 2026. VanEck
anticipates Bitcoin climbing to $180,000 by 2025, with long-term projections
reaching $2 million by 2050.
Wall
Street Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2025
Institution/Analyst | 2025 Price Target | Timeframe | Methodology/Rationale |
Standard Chartered | $200,000 | End-2025 | Institutional adoption, regulatory clarity |
Bernstein | $200,000 | Early 2026 | Asset |
VanEck | $180,000 | 2025 | Long-term institutional flows |
Compass Point | $160,000 | Year-end | ETF adoption, technical analysis |
Benchmark Capital | $164,000 | 2025 | Institutional inflows, supply dynamics |
BTIG | $150,000 | End-2025 | Conservative institutional adoption |
HC Wainwright | $150,000 | 2025 | Steady growth scenario |
TD Cowen | $144,000 | Year-end | Conservative macroeconomic outlook |
Stifel | $122,000 | 2025 | Limited upside, cautious approach |
Barclays | $116,000 | End-2025 | Most conservative, macro uncertainty |
Wall Street Average | $156,000 | 2025 | Consensus across major institutions |
Technical Resistance and
Support Levels on Bitcoin Chart
According
to my Bitcoin price technical analysis, there are few critical levels that will
determine the trajectory of the anticipated rally. Immediate resistance sits at
$116,000-$117,000, representing the upper boundary of the current consolidation
range. A decisive break above this level would target the $120,000 zone, which
analysts view as the gateway to new all-time highs.
Key support
levels include the $115,000 psychological level, reinforced by the 50-day
exponential moving average at approximately $114,500. A break below this zone
could trigger a retest of $112,000-$113,000, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci
retracement from recent highs.
The
technical setup suggests that Bitcoin price must maintain above
$114,000 on a weekly closing basis to preserve bullish momentum, according to
popular analyst Rekt Capital. He emphasizes that “the goal is for Bitcoin
to reclaim $114k into support first, because that’s what would enable the
premium-buying necessary to get price above $117k later on.”
Historical Context and
Seasonal Patterns
Why Bitcoin
is surging today also reflects a departure from typical seasonal weakness
patterns. Historically, September ranks as Bitcoin’s worst-performing month,
yet 2025 has seen the cryptocurrency gain over 6.79% month-to-date. This
performance suggests that macroeconomic factors are overriding seasonal trends,
potentially setting up a strong finish to the year.
Bitcoin
price predictions incorporating historical cycle analysis suggest that the
current consolidation mirrors previous bull market patterns where initial
resistance breakouts led to exponential gains. The convergence of technical
indicators, institutional adoption, and favorable monetary policy creates
conditions similar to previous major rallies in 2020-2021.
My
technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin remains within the same consolidation
pattern since May, though recent action shows important developments. The early
September decline toward July lows around $107,000 was followed by a recovery
toward $116,000 resistance tested on Monday’s session. While most of this move
was subsequently retraced with Bitcoin declining 0.5% to $114,755, the
established resistance at $116,000 from Friday, September 12, remains the key
level to watch.
Looking
ahead, Bitcoin faces logical resistance at $120,000 (July highs) and ultimate
targets around August’s $124,500 peak. Critical support zones remain very close
to current prices, specifically the $113,500-$112,000 range encompassing the
50-day moving average and early August lows with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Additional support lies at August lows near $107,000 and the 38.2% Fibonacci
level combined with the 200-day moving average around $105,000, coinciding with
early July lows.
While the
200-day moving average typically serves as my ultimate determinant of bullish
versus bearish market conditions, I would only change my Bitcoin outlook if
price drops below the six-figure psychological support at $100,000, which
coincides with the 50% retracement and June lows. Above these levels, I
continue to view current action as a technical correction enabling Bitcoin
accumulation at attractive prices, maintaining expectations for a return to
historical maximums or higher by year-end.
Bitcoin price chart technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis: Key Levels and Targets
Technical Level | Price Range | Significance | Action Required |
Immediate Resistance | $116,000-$117,000 | Upper | Break and |
Key Resistance | $120,000 | July highs, psychological level | Gateway |
Ultimate Target | $124,500 | August 2025 ATH | Historical resistance zone |
Current Support | $114,500-$115,000 | 50-day EMA, psychological level | Weekly |
Critical Support | $112,000-$113,000 | Early August lows, 23.6% Fib | Key level |
Major Support | $107,000-$108,000 | July lows, monthly support | Critical |
Bear Market Signal | $100,000 | 50% retracement, June lows | Break |
Can Bitcoin Fall Further?
Despite
bullish Bitcoin price predictions, several risk factors could impact the
anticipated rally. Options market data shows that while downside fears have
eased substantially, with seven-day call/put skews recovering to nearly neutral
from bearish levels, volatility remains elevated ahead of the Federal Reserve
decision[web source needed].
A surprise
50 basis point rate cut could trigger what derivatives analyst Greg Magadini
describes as “a massive +gamma BUY signal for ETH, SOL and BTC,”
potentially accelerating the move toward $160,000 targets[web source needed].
Conversely, a more dovish 25 basis point cut aligns with current expectations
and would likely support a “continued calm grind higher” for Bitcoin.
The
cryptocurrency market faces potential headwinds from ongoing whale
distribution, seasonal volatility patterns, and the possibility that rate cut
expectations are already fully priced into current levels. However, the
combination of technical breakout patterns, institutional accumulation, and
favorable macroeconomic conditions suggests that Bitcoin price is
well-positioned for continued gains through the remainder of 2025.
Bitcoin
price analysis indicates that the convergence of MACD golden cross
signals, Federal Reserve easing expectations, and institutional adoption trends
creates a compelling bullish case for the cryptocurrency’s near-term outlook,
with Bitcoin price predictions targeting $160,000-$200,000
representing increasingly achievable milestones as market conditions continue
to improve.