Gold did
something unusual on Monday: it dropped toward $4,090, its lowest level in a
month, during an active Middle East conflict in which the
Strait of Hormuz is partially blocked and oil is trading near $84 per barrel.
By Tuesday
March 17, it has bounced back above the $5,000 psychological level and is
trading at $5,016 per ounce, but the Monday move exposed a
fragility in the gold rally that the precious metals community cannot ignore.
The same forces that drove gold from $2,600 to over $5,400 in twelve months –
dollar weakness, dovish Fed expectations, central bank buying – are now running
in reverse, at least temporarily.
In this
article, I will break down why gold and silver are falling, examine technical
analysis of both XAU/USD and XAG/USD charts, and compile the most significant
price predictions for 2026, including Robert Kiyosaki’s extraordinary new
forecast. Based on my over 15 years of
experience as an analyst and retail investor, here is what I am watching.
Follow
me on X for real-time gold and silver market analysis: @ChmielDk
Why Gold Is Going Down? The
Dollar, Rates, and the Oil Paradox
Gold
initially spiked from $5,296 to $5,423 when Iran threatened the Strait of
Hormuz – the instinctive safe-haven reaction. It then reversed hard, losing
more than 6% from that intraday high in a matter of sessions.
The
Dollar Index has recovered sharply, climbing above 100.2 – its highest level since May 2025 – making gold
significantly more expensive for buyers using non-dollar currencies.
As Linh
Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com, explains: “A stronger greenback makes gold
more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thereby exerting
downward pressure on the precious metal.”
The dollar
recovery is itself a consequence of oil: the Hormuz closure has pushed Brent
toward $84, reigniting inflation fears that reduce the probability of Fed rate
cuts in June from 57% just weeks ago to below 49% today.
The 10-year
Treasury yield sitting at 4.2-4.3% creates the second layer of
pressure. As Tran puts it, “when bond yields rise, the opportunity cost of
holding gold increases, which tends to reduce the appeal of the non-yielding
asset.” Gold rallied from $2,600 to $5,400 largely on the expectation that
yields would fall as the Fed cut rates. That thesis is now in question, and
gold is repricing accordingly.
Kevin
Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed Chair in early February added a structural
dimension to the selling. Markets read Warsh as more hawkish on inflation than
his predecessor, and the CME subsequently raised margin requirements on metal
futures – triggering the same forced liquidation cascade that hit silver in
January.
Join the inaugural Finance Magnates Singapore Summit 2026, which will bring together brokers, fintechs, banks, EMIs, wealth managers, and hedge funds across APAC.
Why Silver Is Falling?
Silver’s
situation mirrors gold’s but with added volatility from its industrial
character. Monday marked the fourth consecutive session of losses,
with silver dropping to $77 per ounce – its lowest level in a
month – before bouncing to close barely positive, up just 0.2%. Tuesday is so
far producing more of the same: silver is losing 0.15% and trading just above
the $80 critical support level.
Rania Gule,
Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, identifies the primary driver: “The
current decline in silver is not merely a temporary correction, but a deeper
repricing of market expectations regarding the path of U.S. interest rates –
the most influential factor in the short term for non-yielding assets.”
She notes
that fading rate cut expectations “reshape investor behaviour toward
alternative assets, as the opportunity cost of holding the white metal rises in
a monetary environment that still offers relatively stable or positive real
yields.”
The December 2025
analysis covering Kiyosaki’s original $200 silver prediction noted this exact risk – the
precious metals rally was built partly on dovish Fed assumptions that could
reverse.
The January surge
analysis projecting $6,000 gold and the $375 silver
forecast were
both predicated on continued dollar weakness and easing. That assumption has
been tested hard in March.
Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD
Consolidating Near Highs
As my chart
shows, gold is still consolidating near its historical highs set
in late January around $5,600. The structure is a defined range with clear
boundaries. The lower boundary sits around $4,850-$4,900, where the
50-day MA runs and where the February lows formed. The upper boundary
is the January 28 peak at $5,400, retested at the beginning of March. At
$5,016 on Tuesday, we are in the middle of this channel – the white metal is
consolidating, not collapsing.
The Monday
dip to $4,090 was alarming as an intraday event but the key question is whether
it becomes the beginning of a more sustained selloff or simply a liquidity
flush of the kind described above. If the consolidation breaks downward, my
chart shows a sequence of meaningful supports: $4,550 (the
late 2025 historical highs), then $4,360, and ultimately $4,200
– the 200-day MA, which for me is the level that separates a bull trend
from a bear trend. As long as gold holds above $4,200, the structural uptrend
that began in late 2024 remains intact.
Only a
sustained break below $4,200 would force a fundamental reassessment of the bull
case. Above $5,400 – the January high – and gold opens the path toward new
all-time highs and the analyst targets above $6,000.
Why gold price is going down? Source: Tradingview.com
Level | Type | Notes |
$5,600 | All-time high (Jan 2026) | Historical peak |
$5,400 | Upper consolidation band | Jan 28 peak, March retest |
$5,016 | Current price (Mar 17) | Tuesday recovery above $5,000 |
$4,850-$4,900 | Lower consolidation / 50 MA | Key support zone |
$4,550 | First bear target | Late 2025 historical highs |
$4,360 | Second bear target | Intermediate support |
$4,200 | Bull/bear dividing line | 200-day MA |
Silver at a Pivotal Level
Silver’s
chart tells the same story as gold’s but with higher stakes at the current
price. As my analysis shows, silver has been trading in a defined consolidation
range for over a month. The upper boundary is $90-$94 –
last tested in late February. The lower boundary is $70 – the
December and early February lows. At $80, we are exactly in the middle of this
range.
The $80
level is not simply the midpoint. It is also the site of the 50-day EMA and
the December 2025 historical highs – two independent technical forces
converging at the same price. Silver has bounced from this level three separate
times since early March, which gives it credibility as support. Crucially, the
price is currently sitting just below the 50 EMA – a level it needs to reclaim
on a closing basis to ease the near-term selling pressure.
Why silver price is going down? Source: Tradingview.com
Below the
consolidation, the 200-day MA sits just above $60-$62, and the
ultimate structural support is the October 2025 historical highs at $54
per ounce – a 33% decline from current levels. That is the extreme
bear case. The bull case is the mirror image: a break above $94 reopens
the path to the all-time high at $120, with no meaningful technical
resistance between those two levels.
Level | Type | Notes |
$120 | All-time high (Jan 2026) | Full bull case target |
$90-$94 | Upper consolidation band | Last tested late February |
$80 | Current price / critical support | 50 EMA + |
$70 | Lower consolidation band | Dec-Feb lows |
$60-$62 | Bear target 1 | 200-day MA |
$54 | Bear target 2 / ultimate support | Oct 2025 historical highs, -33% |
Kiyosaki’s $35,000 Gold Price
Prediction: The Bubble Bust Thesis
Robert
Kiyosaki’s latest forecast, posted to his 2.4 million X followers on March 16
and generating over 407,000 views, is his most dramatic yet. “I predict gold will hit
$35,000 an ounce one year after the gold bubble goes pop,” he wrote, framing it around
what he calls “the biggest bubble bust in history.” In the same post
he set $200 silver, $750,000 Bitcoin, and $95,000
Ethereum as the one-year-post-crash targets.
BIGGEST BUBBLE BUST
I do not know what pin, what event will pop the biggest bubbles in histor. What ever the event, the pin is near.
It’s not IF. It’s WHEN.
When the bubbles go bust I predict gold will hit $35,000 an ounce one year after the gold bubble goes pop..
I predict…
— Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) March 16, 2026
The
internal logic of Kiyosaki’s thesis is consistent with his previous calls, even
if the numbers are extraordinary. He has long argued that fiat currency
debasement, fiscal deficits, and unsustainable debt levels will ultimately
produce a global financial crisis that destroys paper assets and hyperinflates
real ones. T
he December 2025 FinanceMagnates.com
analysis covering his $200 silver call noted his track record of directionally
correct but temporally imprecise forecasts – he was right that silver would
reach $80, then $100, then $120, but the timing of each target slipped. A
$35,000 gold price implies a roughly 6x rally from current levels and
a market capitalization for gold above $175 trillion, exceeding the total value
of all global equities.
The
“when not if” framing matters here. Kiyosaki is not making a 2026
price call. He is making a structural argument that the current monetary system
produces a crisis, and that precious metals benefit enormously in the
aftermath. Whether that crisis arrives in 2026, 2028, or 2032 is the variable
his forecast does not pin down.
Gold Price Predictions
2026: The Institutional Range
The Wall
Street consensus for gold in 2026 remains broadly bullish despite the March
correction, with most forecasts clustering in the $5,000-$6,500 range for
year-end. Goldman Sachs has maintained its $6,000 target, citing continued
central bank buying and dollar weakness as structural tailwinds. UBS and
Citigroup have published similar forecasts, with Citi flagging $6,000 as
achievable if the Fed cuts twice before year-end.
The bear
cases are less publicized but not absent. AInvest notes that “a hawkish
pivot from the Fed at the March 18 meeting – removing rate cuts from 2026
projections – could trigger significant volatility” and a test of the
lower consolidation boundary at $4,850-$4,900. A break below $4,200 (200 MA)
would represent a structural breakdown that no major institution is currently
forecasting but that my chart identifies as the level to watch.
Source | Gold Target 2026 | Notes |
Goldman Sachs | $6,000 | Central |
UBS | $5,800-$6,200 | Two Fed cuts scenario |
Citigroup | $6,000+ | Dovish Fed required |
My chart (bull) | $5,400+ (ATH retest) | Break above upper consolidation |
My chart (bear) | $4,200 (200 MA) | Bull/bear dividing line |
Robert Kiyosaki | $35,000 | One year |
FAQ
Why is gold going down in
March 2026?
Gold is
falling because the dollar has strengthened to its highest level since May
2025, with the DXY climbing above 100.2, making gold more expensive for
non-dollar buyers. Simultaneously, the 10-year Treasury yield is sitting at
4.2-4.3%, raising the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
How high can gold go in
2026?
As shown on
my chart, a break above the $5,400 upper consolidation boundary – the
January 28 all-time high – reopens the path toward Goldman Sachs’ $6,000 target
and Citigroup’s $6,000+ scenario, both requiring two Fed cuts before year-end.
Robert Kiyosaki’s extreme scenario puts gold at $35,000 one year
after what he calls the biggest bubble bust in history.
How low can gold go before
the bull trend breaks?
As shown on
my chart, the sequence of supports below the current $5,016 price runs
through $4,550 (late 2025 historical highs), then $4,360, and
ultimately the 200-day EMA at $4,200 – the level I identify as the
dividing line between bull and bear trend. As long as gold holds above $4,200,
the structural uptrend that began in late 2024 remains intact. A sustained
close below that level would be the first genuine signal of a trend reversal.
Why is silver falling
alongside gold?
Silver is
under the same dollar and rates pressure as gold, but faces the additional
headwind of fading industrial demand expectations as growth forecasts are
revised lower. Rania Gule of XS.com identifies “fading expectations of
near-term rate cuts” as the primary driver, noting the shift in Fed tone
“from easing to caution” raises the opportunity cost of holding
silver.
Gold did
something unusual on Monday: it dropped toward $4,090, its lowest level in a
month, during an active Middle East conflict in which the
Strait of Hormuz is partially blocked and oil is trading near $84 per barrel.
By Tuesday
March 17, it has bounced back above the $5,000 psychological level and is
trading at $5,016 per ounce, but the Monday move exposed a
fragility in the gold rally that the precious metals community cannot ignore.
The same forces that drove gold from $2,600 to over $5,400 in twelve months –
dollar weakness, dovish Fed expectations, central bank buying – are now running
in reverse, at least temporarily.
In this
article, I will break down why gold and silver are falling, examine technical
analysis of both XAU/USD and XAG/USD charts, and compile the most significant
price predictions for 2026, including Robert Kiyosaki’s extraordinary new
forecast. Based on my over 15 years of
experience as an analyst and retail investor, here is what I am watching.
Follow
me on X for real-time gold and silver market analysis: @ChmielDk
Why Gold Is Going Down? The
Dollar, Rates, and the Oil Paradox
Gold
initially spiked from $5,296 to $5,423 when Iran threatened the Strait of
Hormuz – the instinctive safe-haven reaction. It then reversed hard, losing
more than 6% from that intraday high in a matter of sessions.
The
Dollar Index has recovered sharply, climbing above 100.2 – its highest level since May 2025 – making gold
significantly more expensive for buyers using non-dollar currencies.
As Linh
Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com, explains: “A stronger greenback makes gold
more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thereby exerting
downward pressure on the precious metal.”
The dollar
recovery is itself a consequence of oil: the Hormuz closure has pushed Brent
toward $84, reigniting inflation fears that reduce the probability of Fed rate
cuts in June from 57% just weeks ago to below 49% today.
The 10-year
Treasury yield sitting at 4.2-4.3% creates the second layer of
pressure. As Tran puts it, “when bond yields rise, the opportunity cost of
holding gold increases, which tends to reduce the appeal of the non-yielding
asset.” Gold rallied from $2,600 to $5,400 largely on the expectation that
yields would fall as the Fed cut rates. That thesis is now in question, and
gold is repricing accordingly.
Kevin
Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed Chair in early February added a structural
dimension to the selling. Markets read Warsh as more hawkish on inflation than
his predecessor, and the CME subsequently raised margin requirements on metal
futures – triggering the same forced liquidation cascade that hit silver in
January.
Join the inaugural Finance Magnates Singapore Summit 2026, which will bring together brokers, fintechs, banks, EMIs, wealth managers, and hedge funds across APAC.
Why Silver Is Falling?
Silver’s
situation mirrors gold’s but with added volatility from its industrial
character. Monday marked the fourth consecutive session of losses,
with silver dropping to $77 per ounce – its lowest level in a
month – before bouncing to close barely positive, up just 0.2%. Tuesday is so
far producing more of the same: silver is losing 0.15% and trading just above
the $80 critical support level.
Rania Gule,
Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, identifies the primary driver: “The
current decline in silver is not merely a temporary correction, but a deeper
repricing of market expectations regarding the path of U.S. interest rates –
the most influential factor in the short term for non-yielding assets.”
She notes
that fading rate cut expectations “reshape investor behaviour toward
alternative assets, as the opportunity cost of holding the white metal rises in
a monetary environment that still offers relatively stable or positive real
yields.”
The December 2025
analysis covering Kiyosaki’s original $200 silver prediction noted this exact risk – the
precious metals rally was built partly on dovish Fed assumptions that could
reverse.
The January surge
analysis projecting $6,000 gold and the $375 silver
forecast were
both predicated on continued dollar weakness and easing. That assumption has
been tested hard in March.
Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD
Consolidating Near Highs
As my chart
shows, gold is still consolidating near its historical highs set
in late January around $5,600. The structure is a defined range with clear
boundaries. The lower boundary sits around $4,850-$4,900, where the
50-day MA runs and where the February lows formed. The upper boundary
is the January 28 peak at $5,400, retested at the beginning of March. At
$5,016 on Tuesday, we are in the middle of this channel – the white metal is
consolidating, not collapsing.
The Monday
dip to $4,090 was alarming as an intraday event but the key question is whether
it becomes the beginning of a more sustained selloff or simply a liquidity
flush of the kind described above. If the consolidation breaks downward, my
chart shows a sequence of meaningful supports: $4,550 (the
late 2025 historical highs), then $4,360, and ultimately $4,200
– the 200-day MA, which for me is the level that separates a bull trend
from a bear trend. As long as gold holds above $4,200, the structural uptrend
that began in late 2024 remains intact.
Only a
sustained break below $4,200 would force a fundamental reassessment of the bull
case. Above $5,400 – the January high – and gold opens the path toward new
all-time highs and the analyst targets above $6,000.
Why gold price is going down? Source: Tradingview.com
Level | Type | Notes |
$5,600 | All-time high (Jan 2026) | Historical peak |
$5,400 | Upper consolidation band | Jan 28 peak, March retest |
$5,016 | Current price (Mar 17) | Tuesday recovery above $5,000 |
$4,850-$4,900 | Lower consolidation / 50 MA | Key support zone |
$4,550 | First bear target | Late 2025 historical highs |
$4,360 | Second bear target | Intermediate support |
$4,200 | Bull/bear dividing line | 200-day MA |
Silver at a Pivotal Level
Silver’s
chart tells the same story as gold’s but with higher stakes at the current
price. As my analysis shows, silver has been trading in a defined consolidation
range for over a month. The upper boundary is $90-$94 –
last tested in late February. The lower boundary is $70 – the
December and early February lows. At $80, we are exactly in the middle of this
range.
The $80
level is not simply the midpoint. It is also the site of the 50-day EMA and
the December 2025 historical highs – two independent technical forces
converging at the same price. Silver has bounced from this level three separate
times since early March, which gives it credibility as support. Crucially, the
price is currently sitting just below the 50 EMA – a level it needs to reclaim
on a closing basis to ease the near-term selling pressure.
Why silver price is going down? Source: Tradingview.com
Below the
consolidation, the 200-day MA sits just above $60-$62, and the
ultimate structural support is the October 2025 historical highs at $54
per ounce – a 33% decline from current levels. That is the extreme
bear case. The bull case is the mirror image: a break above $94 reopens
the path to the all-time high at $120, with no meaningful technical
resistance between those two levels.
Level | Type | Notes |
$120 | All-time high (Jan 2026) | Full bull case target |
$90-$94 | Upper consolidation band | Last tested late February |
$80 | Current price / critical support | 50 EMA + |
$70 | Lower consolidation band | Dec-Feb lows |
$60-$62 | Bear target 1 | 200-day MA |
$54 | Bear target 2 / ultimate support | Oct 2025 historical highs, -33% |
Kiyosaki’s $35,000 Gold Price
Prediction: The Bubble Bust Thesis
Robert
Kiyosaki’s latest forecast, posted to his 2.4 million X followers on March 16
and generating over 407,000 views, is his most dramatic yet. “I predict gold will hit
$35,000 an ounce one year after the gold bubble goes pop,” he wrote, framing it around
what he calls “the biggest bubble bust in history.” In the same post
he set $200 silver, $750,000 Bitcoin, and $95,000
Ethereum as the one-year-post-crash targets.
BIGGEST BUBBLE BUST
I do not know what pin, what event will pop the biggest bubbles in histor. What ever the event, the pin is near.
It’s not IF. It’s WHEN.
When the bubbles go bust I predict gold will hit $35,000 an ounce one year after the gold bubble goes pop..
I predict…
— Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) March 16, 2026
The
internal logic of Kiyosaki’s thesis is consistent with his previous calls, even
if the numbers are extraordinary. He has long argued that fiat currency
debasement, fiscal deficits, and unsustainable debt levels will ultimately
produce a global financial crisis that destroys paper assets and hyperinflates
real ones. T
he December 2025 FinanceMagnates.com
analysis covering his $200 silver call noted his track record of directionally
correct but temporally imprecise forecasts – he was right that silver would
reach $80, then $100, then $120, but the timing of each target slipped. A
$35,000 gold price implies a roughly 6x rally from current levels and
a market capitalization for gold above $175 trillion, exceeding the total value
of all global equities.
The
“when not if” framing matters here. Kiyosaki is not making a 2026
price call. He is making a structural argument that the current monetary system
produces a crisis, and that precious metals benefit enormously in the
aftermath. Whether that crisis arrives in 2026, 2028, or 2032 is the variable
his forecast does not pin down.
Gold Price Predictions
2026: The Institutional Range
The Wall
Street consensus for gold in 2026 remains broadly bullish despite the March
correction, with most forecasts clustering in the $5,000-$6,500 range for
year-end. Goldman Sachs has maintained its $6,000 target, citing continued
central bank buying and dollar weakness as structural tailwinds. UBS and
Citigroup have published similar forecasts, with Citi flagging $6,000 as
achievable if the Fed cuts twice before year-end.
The bear
cases are less publicized but not absent. AInvest notes that “a hawkish
pivot from the Fed at the March 18 meeting – removing rate cuts from 2026
projections – could trigger significant volatility” and a test of the
lower consolidation boundary at $4,850-$4,900. A break below $4,200 (200 MA)
would represent a structural breakdown that no major institution is currently
forecasting but that my chart identifies as the level to watch.
Source | Gold Target 2026 | Notes |
Goldman Sachs | $6,000 | Central |
UBS | $5,800-$6,200 | Two Fed cuts scenario |
Citigroup | $6,000+ | Dovish Fed required |
My chart (bull) | $5,400+ (ATH retest) | Break above upper consolidation |
My chart (bear) | $4,200 (200 MA) | Bull/bear dividing line |
Robert Kiyosaki | $35,000 | One year |
FAQ
Why is gold going down in
March 2026?
Gold is
falling because the dollar has strengthened to its highest level since May
2025, with the DXY climbing above 100.2, making gold more expensive for
non-dollar buyers. Simultaneously, the 10-year Treasury yield is sitting at
4.2-4.3%, raising the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
How high can gold go in
2026?
As shown on
my chart, a break above the $5,400 upper consolidation boundary – the
January 28 all-time high – reopens the path toward Goldman Sachs’ $6,000 target
and Citigroup’s $6,000+ scenario, both requiring two Fed cuts before year-end.
Robert Kiyosaki’s extreme scenario puts gold at $35,000 one year
after what he calls the biggest bubble bust in history.
How low can gold go before
the bull trend breaks?
As shown on
my chart, the sequence of supports below the current $5,016 price runs
through $4,550 (late 2025 historical highs), then $4,360, and
ultimately the 200-day EMA at $4,200 – the level I identify as the
dividing line between bull and bear trend. As long as gold holds above $4,200,
the structural uptrend that began in late 2024 remains intact. A sustained
close below that level would be the first genuine signal of a trend reversal.
Why is silver falling
alongside gold?
Silver is
under the same dollar and rates pressure as gold, but faces the additional
headwind of fading industrial demand expectations as growth forecasts are
revised lower. Rania Gule of XS.com identifies “fading expectations of
near-term rate cuts” as the primary driver, noting the shift in Fed tone
“from easing to caution” raises the opportunity cost of holding
silver.
