With AAPL Lagging, Can HomePad Spark Apple’s Next Growth Cycle?

Apple Inc. NASDAQ: AAPL has always been a company that measures twice and cuts once. The fact that Apple was late to the AI party isn’t surprising. Apple doesn’t tend to rush into things. The company has been known to adopt trends late but execute at a high level.

So, it probably wasn’t a big surprise to consumers or investors that its smart display, HomePad, is delayed.

The device was originally scheduled to launch in late 2024. However, the company is taking extra time to perfect the hardware and intelligence inside the device. The new launch may happen in late 2025, but more likely in 2026.

This delay comes at a challenging time. Apple faces problems on multiple fronts, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on its flagship iPhone. This is weighing on AAPL stock, which is down 20.15% in 2025 and lags many technology stocks.

So, a delayed launch isn’t ideal. But after the lukewarm reception of Apple Intelligence, it’s one that Apple needs to get right. Because the HomePad isn’t just another smart device. It could become the cornerstone of Apple’s SmartHome ambitions.

The Good and the Bad About Apple Intelligence

Apple took a long time to launch the highly anticipated Apple Intelligence. But for many users, its “limitations” have outweighed its benefits.

That’s not to say that iPhone 16 sales have been poor, but it’s hard to gauge if consumers are getting a new iPhone because of Apple Intelligence or just as a normal part of an upgrade cycle.

The general sense is that Apple Intelligence is incomplete. That needs to be addressed before Apple can successfully launch a smart hub designed to seamlessly manage lights, music, camera feeds, and daily routines.

HomePad Could Give Apple the Last Laugh With AI

HomePad will be an extension of Apple’s HomePod, which was part of Apple’s HomeKit. It promises to make Apple a significant player in the smart home market.

It could also springboard Apple into a leadership position in the emerging discipline of ambient intelligence. This refers to environments with electronic devices that sense and recognize human presence and adapt accordingly.

At its developer conference in May, Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ: GOOGL introduced its Gemini Live, the company’s first foray into ambient intelligence. Once again, Apple is playing catch-up, but the HomePad has the advantage of being part of Apple’s walled garden.

It’s a big garden. A 2023 study by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, LLC (CIRP) cited that 30% of Apple owners own all of Apple’s core four products (iPhone, iPad, Mac computer, and Apple Watch).

Now consider how HomePad will integrate with each of those devices in addition to Apple Music, AppleTV and more. You get the picture.

There’s a reason Apple fights so hard to protect its walled garden. It’s a significant competitive advantage that reduces churn by elevating switching costs.

Shareholder Value May Come Down the Road

As with many Apple devices, it may take a few generations for widespread adoption of the HomePad.

However, like the iPad and later the Apple Watch, the company has a way of turning products that seem like expensive curiosities into essential technology that binds consumers closer to the company’s ecosystem.

But what does that mean for AAPL stock?

Like many of its products, Apple isn’t likely to break out revenue for the HomePad as a line item. However, we know it will be part of the company’s Wearables, Home & Accessories category. That part of the business generated $39.84 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2024 (ending in September 2024).

That’s only about 10% of Apple’s total revenue last year. So, you have to say that the HomePad may not immediately move the stock.

But the same was said for the Apple Watch. That’s now become a significant part of the company’s plans, including being a major force in healthcare. In fact, the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) now lists the Apple Watch as a Wellness Tool. So much for being an expensive curiosity.

It feels like Apple is on the verge of a metamorphosis. That’s not to say the iPhone will become obsolete or even less important. But there’s a belief that when Apple is quiet, it’s dangerous.

HomePad is quiet right now, but it could get noisy soon. That may not be a reason for investors to own AAPL stock, but more than enough reason to keep it on a watchlist.

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