After a powerful run in precious metals in 2025 and a fresh breakout in energy commodities driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, investors are rightfully questioning what’s next.
Commodity markets rarely move in isolation. Metals, energy, and agriculture are tightly linked through production costs, global trade flows, and geopolitical shocks. Thus, the latter might be the next opportunity.
Technical signals are already turning. According to Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat, grains may be entering a stronger phase within the broader commodity cycle.
“Agriculture’s rally seems to be kicking into gear at a time when the U.S. equity rally has begun to wobble,” Newton said per the WSJ. He expects corn, wheat, and soybeans to begin climbing as agricultural markets do well within the broader commodities cycle.
The Commodity Domino Effect
A standard barrel of crude oil (42 gallons) acts as the energy benchmark that influences everything from fertilizer synthesis to shipping crops around the world. Yet, crude oil, which kicked off the year at $57.5 per barrel, has traded as high as $119.54.
When energy prices surge, the cost of producing food typically follows.
Risks from the Gulf
An important factor in agricultural business is not only the land and energy, but also fertilizer. Roughly 30% of the world’s globally traded fertilizers come from the Gulf region, IFPRI reported.
Any disruption linked to tensions involving Iran could therefore tighten fertilizer supply just as planting seasons ramp up across Europe and Asia.
Even if the conflict subsides quickly, supply disruptions could push fertilizer costs higher for months, ultimately filtering into food prices and crop markets.
There are already hints of strength in certain agricultural segments.
The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization reported that global food prices rose for the first time in five months. Vegetable oils—one of the most geopolitically sensitive agricultural commodities—have led the move, jumping 3.3% in February to their highest level since mid-2022.
Vegetable oils are especially sensitive to geopolitical disruptions. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, global vegetable-oil prices surged more than 40% as exports of sunflower oil and other key inputs were disrupted across the Black Sea.
Agricultural Exposure
The ETF broke out earlier this year, though it still trades well below its 2022 highs during the last commodity surge.
Meanwhile, futures-linked products like the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA) track baskets of agricultural commodities, including wheat, corn, and soybeans—markets Newton expects to strengthen.
Farmers Invest Elsewhere
Ironically, some farmers themselves are looking outside agriculture for investment opportunities.
According to the WSJ, Missouri vegetable farmer Matt Meyer recently bought technology stocks such as Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Intuit during a market dip, believing software companies will benefit from the next wave of artificial-intelligence spending.
“If anyone wants to keep their job as CEO, it would be tremendously foolhardy to adopt a homegrown solution,” Meyer said.
While the market might be eyeing agriculture for its next move, those close to the fields seem to be looking elsewhere for their next return.
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