Sugar Prices Retreat as Ethanol Weakness May Spur More Sugar Production

July NY world sugar #11 (SBN26) today is down -0.48 (-3.12%), and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) is down -13.10 (-2.90%).

Sugar prices are sharply lower today, with London sugar tumbling to a 1-week low.   Today’s -4% plunge in gasoline prices (RBM26) is undercutting ethanol prices and weighing on sugar prices.  According to Covrig Analytics, falling ethanol prices are already prompting Brazilian sugar mills to divert sugarcane away from ethanol production toward sugar, as sugar prices are currently 0.7 to 1 cent per pound more profitable to produce than ethanol.

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On Tuesday, sugar prices soared to 5-week highs on concerns that future global sugar supplies will shrink.  Last Friday, Green Pool Commodity Specialists raised their global 2026/27 sugar deficit estimate to -4.30 MMT from -1.66 MMT, citing a shift toward higher ethanol production at the expense of sugar.

The recent surge in gasoline prices to a 3.75-year high is also bullish for sugar, as higher gasoline prices boost ethanol prices and could persuade the world’s sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, thereby curbing sugar supplies.

The recent action by Brazil’s sugar mills to boost ethanol production at the expense of sugar is supportive for sugar prices.  Last Thursday, Unica reported that 2026/27 Brazil Center-South sugar production in the first half of April fell -11.9% y/y to 647 MT, with mills cutting the amount of cane crushed for sugar production to 32.9% from 44.7% last year.  Last Tuesday, Conab, in its initial report for the new sugar season, reported that 2026/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43,952 MT, while ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y/y to 29,259 million liters.

Sugar prices also have some support amid concerns over supply disruptions from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  According to Covrig Analytics, the closure of the strait has curbed approximately 6% of the world’s sugar trade, constraining refined sugar output.

Last month, NY sugar fell to a 5.5-year low in the nearest futures contract amid expectations of abundant global supplies and tepid demand.

Sugar prices were also pressured last month when India’s Food Secretary said the government has no plans to ban sugar exports this year, easing concerns that it could divert more sugar to make ethanol following the Iran war disruption to crude oil supplies.  On February 13, India’s government approved an additional 500,000 MT of sugar for export for the 2025/26 season, on top of the 1.5 MMT approved in November.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies.  Meanwhile, the USDA on Thursday said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years.  India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.

The outlook for smaller Brazilian sugar output is supportive of prices.   On April 21, the USDA forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production at 42.5 MMT, down -3% y/y, citing millers crushing more cane for ethanol than for sugar.

Signs of a smaller global sugar surplus are also supportive for prices.  On April 21, Covrig Analytics cut its 2026/27 global sugar surplus estimate to 800,000 MT from 1.4 MMT previously.  On April 20, sugar trader Czarnikow cut its 2026/27 global sugar surplus estimate to 1.1 MMT from 3.4 MMT in February, and cut its 2025/26 surplus estimate to 5.8 MT from 8.3 MMT.

On April 16, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. reported that India’s 2025-26 sugar production from Oct 1-Apr 15 was up +7.7% y/y to 27.48 MMT.  On March 11, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) projected India’s 2025/26 sugar production at 29.3 MMT, up 12% y/y, below an earlier projection of 30.95 MMT.  The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports.

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) on February 27 forecasted a +1.22 MMT (million metric ton) sugar surplus in 2025-26, following a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  ISO said the surplus is being driven by increased sugar production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.  ISO is forecasting a +3.0% y/y rise in global sugar production to 181.3 million MMT in 2025-26.

The USDA, in its bi-annual report released on December 16, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would climb +4.6% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a record 177.921 MMT.  The USDA also forecast that 2025/26 global sugar ending stocks would fall by -2.9% y/y to 41.188 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production would rise by 2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT.  FAS also predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would increase by 25% y/y to 35.25 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  In addition, FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar production will increase by +2% y/y to 10.25 MMT.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com