July NY world sugar #11 (SBN26) today is down -0.08 (-0.56%), and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) is up +1.60 (+0.36%).
Sugar prices fell from early highs today and are mixed, with London sugar posting a 2.5-week high. NY sugar slipped from a 1-week high today and turned lower as a stronger dollar spurred long liquidation in sugar futures. Also, the outlook for ample global sugar supplies is bearish for prices. Last Wednesday, Unica reported that 2026/27 Brazil Center-South sugar production in April rose +55.3% y/y to 2.475 MMT, driven by higher yields, with sucrose per ton of cane at 112.58 kilograms, up +5.4% from the same time last year.
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Strength in Thailand’s sugar exports, the world’s second-largest, is also bearish for prices. Thailand’s 2026 sugar exports Jan-Apr rose +29% y/y to 1.6 MMT.
Sugar prices are supported by concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production. The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions. India’s weather office recently lowered its cumulative rainfall estimate for the June-September monsoon season last Friday to 90% of the long-term average, down from a forecast of 92% issued in April. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”
On April 28, Conab, in its initial report for the new sugar season, forecast that 2026/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43.952 MMT, while ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y/y to 29.259 million liters. On April 21, the USDA forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production at 42.5 MMT, down -3% y/y, citing millers crushing more cane for ethanol than for sugar.
Sugar prices have found some support amid concerns about supply disruptions stemming from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Covrig Analytics, the closure of the strait has curbed approximately 6% of the world’s sugar trade, constraining refined sugar output.
On April 16, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. reported that India’s 2025-26 sugar production from Oct 1-Apr 15 was up +7.7% y/y to 27.48 MMT. On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT. The ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT. India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.
