American Express (NYSE: AXP) stock has been sliding this year as the market continues to worry about interest rates, inflation, oil prices, and how they’re going to impact the economy. The Warren Buffett favorite, though, continues to demonstrate growth and momentum. Are the worries unfounded?
Here’s why card-fee growth matters more than spending growth right now, and what to expect when the company reports second-quarter earnings on July 24.
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The inflation-proof model
American Express isn’t the largest credit card network in the world, but it targets the affluent, who tend to spend more. It has a fee-based model for most of its cards that attracts a higher-income population, and even though it only has 155.9 million cards in force, its revenue is actually much higher than that of Visa (NYSE: V), which services about 5 billion cards worldwide.
This model works well and provides resilience in challenging economic environments because it has a recurring revenue stream that flows directly to the bottom line. Whether members shop more or less, they still pay the annual fee. There have been times when even its higher spenders have been under pressure, and the fee-based model has provided protection during those periods.
So far, business has been robust despite the challenging macroeconomy. In the 2026 first quarter, revenue increased 11% year over year, while card fees, which accounted for 14.5% of the total, increased 18%. Billed business was up 10%. Earnings per share (EPS) were up 18% as well to $4.28, and Wall Street is looking for $4.40 in EPS for the second quarter, a 7.8% increase year over year.
The future growth engine
Another feature that plays into this is its successful pivot targeting younger shoppers, who are buying into the long-term model. Millennials accounted for 30% of the total in the first quarter but increased 13%, while Gen-Z cardmembers accounted for 6% of the total but grew 38%. That’s in contrast with Gen-X members, who accounted for 36% and grew 8%. These shoppers should provide years of growth as they engage with the platform, pay annual fees, and spend.
American Express, which is looking a lot more like a subscription business than a volume play, can navigate challenges more smoothly than a company like Visa, which simply takes a small cut of every swipe. In Visa’s case, fewer swipes mean less revenue. In Amex’s case, more swipes sweeten the deal, but it’s still coming out ahead.
