Prediction market traders are pricing a 78% chance that SpaceX closes its first day of trading above $2 trillion, a valuation that would rank it among the ten most valuable companies in the world, ahead of Saudi Aramco, Tesla, and Meta Platforms.
Polymarket contracts also show a 15% probability of SpaceX closing above $2.8 trillion on its first day, a level that would displace Amazon as the fifth most valuable company in the world, behind only Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft.
The prediction market data arrives as Bloomberg reported today that SpaceX has trimmed its IPO valuation target to at least $1.8 trillion, down from the $2 trillion figure the company had been seeking as recently as April.
Elon Musk’s rocket, satellite and artificial intelligence company filed for a Nasdaq listing on 20 May under the ticker SPCX, targeting a raise of at least $75 billion, which would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record.
Twenty-three financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and Citigroup, are underwriting the deal, with the IPO roadshow set to begin on 8 June and trading expected to start around 12 June.
SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, up 33% year-on-year, with 60% derived from Starlink, its satellite internet business which now serves more than 10 million subscribers.
The company swung to a loss of $4.94 billion last year from a profit of $791 million in 2024, driven by $12.7 billion in capital spending on data centres for its xAI division, which exceeded what it spent on rockets and satellites combined.
A $1.25 billion-a-month computing supply agreement with AI company Anthropic is expected to begin contributing materially to revenues.
Musk will hold 85% of total voting power after the listing, meaning he effectively cannot be removed without his own consent, and the IPO is expected to make him the world’s first trillionaire.
