This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
OpenAI’s ChatGPT regained momentum against Alphabet’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Gemini in July, interrupting one of the most important competitive trends in artificial intelligence just as OpenAI moves closer to a potential public listing. BNP Paribas still considers ChatGPT the clear leader, but the underlying numbers show an AI chatbot market where Google and Anthropic have become meaningful challengers rather than distant alternatives.
BNP analyst Nick Jones said Gemini’s share of chatbot visits slipped to 28.8% in July from 30.3% in June, while its share of daily active users held at 19.8%. ChatGPT, meanwhile, regained share across both measures.
Anthropic’s Claude continued moving in the opposite direction, with visit share rising to 10.4% from 10%. SpaceXAI’s Grok lost ground, while Meta AI was described as stable to slightly improving.
The setback for Gemini should be kept in perspective. Alphabet said its Gemini app reached 950 million monthly active users during the second quarter, while daily active users have tripled over the past year. Gemini is also being embedded across Search, Cloud and Workspace, giving Google distribution well beyond the standalone chatbot.
That makes ChatGPT’s ability to regain share particularly significant for OpenAI.
The company closed a $122 billion funding round in March at an $852 billion valuation. At the time, OpenAI said it was generating $2 billion in monthly revenue. Recent reports now put its annualized revenue run rate above $40 billion.
OpenAI also confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO in June, although no listing date has been set.
Investor takeaway
For investors, July’s data reinforce that AI leadership is increasingly becoming a battle over distribution, engagement and monetization rather than model benchmarks alone.
Alphabet investors should watch whether Gemini’s July traffic decline proves temporary. Google can monetize AI through Search, Cloud and Workspace even if Gemini does not lead standalone chatbot traffic. Cloud revenue already surged 82% last quarter, showing that AI adoption can translate into financial results outside the consumer app.
For prospective OpenAI investors, ChatGPT’s continued usage leadership strengthens the IPO story, particularly alongside accelerating revenue.
But Claude’s steady gains are an important warning. If users increasingly switch between multiple assistants, sustained leadership will require constant product improvement and enormous compute spending. ChatGPT regained ground in July, but the AI race is becoming more competitive, not less.
