Operational Recovery and Strategic Positioning
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Achieved full capacity across all assets for the first time in over a decade following the completion of the Mt. Holly expansion and the accelerated restart of Grundartangi Line 2.
Capitalized on a global aluminum deficit of approximately 1 million tons, driven by supply constraints in the Middle East and robust demand from power, data infrastructure, and aerospace sectors.
Improved the Jamalco cost structure by bringing the TG 4 power generation turbine online, enabling self-sufficient energy production and eliminating reliance on the Jamaican grid.
Strengthened the balance sheet to a net cash position, with cash on hand exceeding total debt as of July, providing the capacity to fund the Oklahoma smelter project.
Benefited from the reshoring of downstream fabrication following federal actions to close valuation loopholes in the Section 232 program.
Managed operational headwinds at Jamalco related to lower quality bauxite, with a revised mining plan expected to take several quarters to fully implement.
Growth Initiatives and Market Outlook
Expect to reach Final Investment Decision (FID) and groundbreaking for the new Oklahoma smelter by the end of 2026, with first hot metal targeted for late 2029.
Anticipate a material financial benefit starting in 2027 from a new Executive Order allowing Century to import up to 300,000 metric tons at a reduced 25% tariff rate.
Project continued global aluminum deficit conditions through 2027 as Middle Eastern production levels are expected to remain materially lower in the near term.
Forecast Q3 adjusted EBITDA between $325 million and $345 million, accounting for increased volumes from Mt. Holly offset by seasonal energy headwinds of $10 million to $15 million.
Plan to monetize a 6.8% non-dilutive interest in the Hawesville data center project, which recently secured a 20-year lease expected to generate $19 billion in total revenue.
Structural Developments and Risk Factors
Reported a working capital build in Q2 due to the Mt. Holly expansion and shipment timing, which is expected to partially unwind and provide a cash tailwind in Q3.
Identified minor operational instability at Mt. Holly following the restart, though management expects this to be fully resolved within the third quarter.
Noted that Grundartangi Line 2 is currently running at reduced amperage to protect equipment until new replacement transformers are installed in Q4.
Highlighted the receipt of $94 million in 45X tax credits in July, significantly boosting the company’s liquidity position post-quarter end.
