Chief executives broadly expect inflation to rise 3.7% over the next 12 months, according to a quarterly report from the Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research released Monday.
The Cleveland Fed’s Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations comes just as the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index for April on Tuesday. It’s expected to show inflation has already climbed to 3.7%, as energy prices have surged on the conflict in the Middle East. That would be up from 3.3% in March.
Excluding the surge in energy and food prices, so-called core inflation is expected to be a milder 2.7%, up from 2.6% in March. Still, inflation is moving in the opposite direction from the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation goal.
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CEOs’ inflation expectations rose to 3.7% in April, up from 3.1% in January. The CEOs surveyed across the manufacturing and services sectors expect prices they charge to rise by 3.3%, down from 3.9% in October. They expect their unit costs to rise 3.5%, up from 3.3% in October.
That chief executives expected to raise their prices by 3.3% — less than they thought in the fall — is trending in the right direction. But that’s still well above the Fed’s 2% goal, making it harder to sell the story that inflation is coming down.
Still, some Fed officials have said they expect inflation to retreat next year. New York Fed president John Williams said last week that he expects inflation to be about 3% this year, before dropping to 2% next year.
But right now, trend inflation has not shown clear signs of dipping below 3%. Deutsche Bank examined a range of inflation measures, from the Personal Consumption Expenditures index to the New York Fed’s inflation gauge, and found each at around 3%. Inflation has remained 75 to 100 basis points above the Fed’s target for the past two years, according to Deutsche Bank.
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Deutsche Bank chief US economist Matt Luzzetti said that while he still expects inflation to come down next year, “after persistent upside misses on inflation, we also think it is appropriate to consider a more skeptical view that next year is finally when above-target inflation will be vanquished.”
Luzzetti said demand may be stronger in the economy than realized, and AI (in addition to tariffs) could be pushing up goods prices, which could act as a longer-lasting tailwind for inflation.
He pointed to the price index for computer software and accessories, which is up 50% annualized on a six-month basis. Investment has surged in anything AI-related, including software, chips, computers and peripheral equipment, and data centers.
