Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is moving further into the autonomous-driving market as it has started offering robotaxi rides using its Cybercab. The company hosted a Cybercab launch event in Austin on September 3.
Following the event, Goldman Sachs maintained a Neutral rating on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA). The bank has a 12-month price target of $360 on the stock. The firm sees an illustrative upside scenario of about $500 and a downside scenario of roughly $150.
Goldman Sachs said the Cybercab could give the company a cost advantage in the autonomous-vehicle market. However, the firm believes the company’s ability to scale its robotaxi business will depend more on software performance than on the cost of manufacturing the vehicle.
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) said it has completed 1 million miles of unsupervised robotaxi operations. The company is also looking for operators interested in owning Cybercab fleets, running hubs and related infrastructure, or hosting robotaxi events.
Goldman Sachs highlighted the company’s focus on developing a low-cost autonomous vehicle. The company’s unboxed manufacturing approach and camera-only sensor system could help improve the economics of its robotaxi business. According to Goldman estimates, if Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) can achieve its targeted Cybercab cost of $20,000 to $30,000 at scale, it could have a potential $0.05 to $0.30 per-mile cost advantage over autonomous-vehicle competitors with upfront vehicle costs of $50,000 to $100,000.
The company’s recent safety data also provides some support for its autonomous-driving strategy. Goldman Sachs noted that vehicles using Tesla’s supervised Full Self-Driving system on fourth-generation hardware in North America recorded roughly 75% to 85% fewer automatic emergency braking events and 40% to 90% fewer minor and major collisions than Tesla, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) vehicles not using FSD.
Software Remains the Bigger Question
However, Goldman Sachs believes the more important question for investors is whether the company’s AI approach can allow its autonomous-driving software to scale quickly and operate across a broader geographic area.
A broader operating footprint could allow the company to increase its revenue while spreading its vehicle cost base across a higher number of miles. This means the software could ultimately have a greater impact on robotaxi economics than the manufacturing cost of the Cybercab.
According to Goldman estimates, Tesla, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) fully driverless robotaxi operation experienced an accident, regardless of fault, every 50,000 to 70,000 miles. The firm’s estimate was based on available NHTSA crash data through mid-July and the company’s disclosures for Austin, Dallas, and Houston. Goldman did not include data from before January, when the company began fully driverless rides.
