After staying flat for two weeks, oil picked up momentum last week and rallied. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($71.80/barrel) was up 5.9 per cent whereas crude oil futures in the domestic market (₹6,057/barrel) gained 5.7 per cent.
Brent futures ($71.80)
Brent crude oil futures, which consolidated between $67 and $69 recently, broke out of key resistances at $69 and $71 last week. It also surpassed the trendline resistance at $70. Thus, the outlook has turned bullish.
The price action in the daily chart resembles the breakout of a bull flag chart pattern and as per this set-up, Brent crude futures is likely to hit $80 soon.
The positive outlook will change only if the price falls below the support at $67, which is unlikely given the current momentum. Although, from the current level of $71.80, we might see a corrective dip to $69-70 price band before the next leg up.
MCX-Crude oil (₹6,057)
Crude oil futures (March) rebounded from the support at ₹5,650 last Wednesday and went past the barriers at ₹5,900 and ₹6,000 in the following sessions. This uptick shows that the contract has regained positive momentum after a pause.
While ₹6,120 is a minor resistance, we expect crude oil futures to rise above this level and touch ₹6,500 in the near term. A breakout of ₹6,500 can lift it further to ₹7,000.
But if the contract falls and breaks down below ₹5,650, the bears will gain enough traction to extend the downswing. Potential support below ₹5,650 is at ₹5,500 followed by ₹5,000.
Trade strategy: Last week, we suggested rolling over longs from February to March contract. Retain this trade initiated at about ₹5,800. Revise the stop-loss up from ₹5,450 to ₹5,650. Book profits at ₹6,500.
Published on February 21, 2026
