September WTI crude oil (CLU26) today is up +5.31 (+6.70%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) is up -0.0802 (+2.55%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices are soaring today amid a fresh round of hostilities in the Middle East, which threatens global energy supplies. Gains in crude accelerated after President Trump said the US will “hit Iran hard” after a recent attack from Iran that targeted a US base in Jordan. Crude prices raced to their highs after weekly EIA crude inventories unexpectedly fell to a 7.75-year low and after crude supplies at Cushing sank to a nearly 12-year low.
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Crude oil prices jumped today after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it targeted a US airbase and command center in Jordan with ballistic missiles. The IRGC also claimed to have hit and halted three tankers attempting to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the US and Saudi Arabia launched a joint attack on “Iran-aligned terrorists” in Iraq after the IRGC directed them to target US forces and Saudi energy infrastructure.
Tensions remain high in the Middle East as the US maintains its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. Also, diplomatic attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz appear to be at an impasse. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said Oman’s proposal for a route through the Strait of Hormuz, with 50% under Iran’s control and 50% under Oman’s, would not address Iran’s concerns and that the inbound passage and part of the outbound channel must be entirely under Iran’s control.
Global crude oil supplies are tightening due to reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Maritime Organization recently warned that it is too dangerous to cross the Strait of Hormuz at the moment, and visible transit through the strait has fallen sharply as Iran continues targeting tankers attempting to transit it.
Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Russian crude production fell to 8.928 million bpd in June, the lowest in 2.5 years, according to monthly OPEC data. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates will average 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian fuel-producing facilities more than 50 times this year, hitting at least 24 of Russia’s 34 largest refineries. As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports. Russia is the world’s number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa.
