(Bloomberg) — Crypto markets are once again serving as the only open window into how traders are pricing the continuing conflict in the Middle East, with contracts tracking oil, gold and silver on Hyperliquid showing notable moves as the Iran war enters its second week.
The contracts — perpetual futures on Hyperliquid, a crypto exchange that has become one of the largest venues for around-the-clock derivatives trading — track asset prices but never expire, allowing traders to hold leveraged positions without clearinghouse delays. They are settled in stablecoins such as USDC, which are pegged to the US dollar. And while their volumes remain a fraction of conventional commodity markets, activity has picked up sharply since the conflict began.
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An oil-linked contract on the platform climbed 4% to $92 a barrel as of around 9:30 a.m. in New York, building on last week’s surge in crude. Gold contracts gained roughly 1.5% to $5,170 per troy ounce and silver rose 2.2% to around $85 an ounce, suggesting traders see no near-term easing of the conflict premium. Silver saw about $150 million in 24-hour volume on the platform, while gold clocked over $43 million. Still, the Bitcoin futures contract remains the most popular perps product on Hyperliquid, logging more than $2.8 billion in volume over the past day.
This weekend’s moves are more difficult to interpret than last week’s. The preceding five sessions proved turbulent after the S&P 500 posted its worst weekly loss since October, a surprise decline in US payrolls stoked stagflation concerns, and oil recorded its biggest weekly gain in years. With that much already priced by Friday’s close, the bar for a meaningful weekend signal is higher.
To be sure, the price changes on Hyperliquid reflect certain criteria — including how many people are using the still relatively unknown platform on a weekend — and may not necessarily translate into how the assets will trade once traditional markets reopen. In the crypto world, which moves around the clock, Bitcoin was little changed at around $68,000 on Saturday, caught between geopolitical pressure on risk assets and its role as the only major market open for real-time macro positioning.
Traders will get a clearer read on how markets are absorbing the second week of hostilities when conventional trading resumes Sunday afternoon in Asia. Rhetoric around the war in the Middle East escalated after President Donald Trump said the US will consider striking areas and groups of people in Iran that were not previously considered targets.
