Dear ASML Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for April 15

ASML’s (ASML) Q1 2026 earnings release is slated for Wednesday, Apr. 15. The company will publish its press release, video, financial statements, and presentation shortly after 07:00 CET, followed by a 60-minute investor call at 15:00 CET with CEO Christophe Fouquet and CFO Roger Dassen.

ASML manufactures extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines for making semiconductors, and it holds a monopoly here. Chipmakers need these machines to print their circuits into silicon wafers, and this company’s tech is used for nearly all advanced chips. In fact, even Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is dependent upon ASML’s technology, so this one company has tremendous leverage over the entire semiconductor supply chain. ASML has a current market cap of $581.38 billion.

And as you’d expect, the stock has delivered explosive gains. ASML stock is up 127.59% over the past year and is still expected to continue rising. But whether or not it will continue this explosive rally with the same intensity rests on this earnings call.

Q1 earnings calls are always a checkpoint for the market, and investors are looking at things more scrupulously than ever. ASML stock is trading at 42 times forward earnings for slower growth than Nvidia (NVDA), which trades at almost half that premium. But to justify that premium, ASML needs to meet or beat its own earnings forecast for Q1.

ASML said it expects Q1 2026 total net sales of EUR 8.2-8.9 billion, with the gross margin at 51-53%. It sees R&D costs at EUR 1.2 billion, and SG&A costs of EUR 300 million.

ASML expects EUR 34-39 billion with a gross margin of 51-53% for all of 2026. I would especially watch whether management repeats, raises, or softens that 2026 sales range and gross margin outlook.

Investors may want to pay close attention to commentary on bookings, EUV and High NA demand, and customer spending plans, because those themes have been central to the stock’s narrative across recent quarters.

The expectations of the market are more or less coalesced around where that guidance is. The higher end of that sales guidance lands around $10.44 billion, with a consensus of $7.72 in EPS and $10.21 billion in revenue.

Bookings matter as well, because ASML ended 2025 with a backlog of EUR 38.8 billion and posted EUR 13.2 billion in Q4 net bookings.

Management also said customers have become notably more positive on medium-term demand, especially because AI infrastructure spending is translating into more capacity needs in advanced logic and DRAM.

Investors may be paying a very high premium for a stock that doesn’t have the growth. ASML has a terrific backlog, but so does every other AI stock at this stage. If ASML does disappoint, I’d expect a punishing correction here. Perhaps, it may take the stock below $1,000, towards the lower end of price targets.

Base case, I also expect a correction, or at least sideways trading. Of course, profits are catching up, and there’s long-term growth here, but even those guidance figures don’t justify paying over 42 times forward earnings.

I do see ASML stock gaining significantly if management reports a quarter where backlog grows, both earnings and revenue estimates are trounced, and the guidance gets a raise. If guidance is trimmed, the selloff could be sharper than many bulls expect because the debate would shift from quality to valuation, which is often where premium stocks get hurt most. I’ll be very careful before April 15.

On the date of publication, Omor Ibne Ehsan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com