Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) are far and away the heavyweights in the global market for GLP-1 drugs, which effectively treat both type 2 diabetes and obesity.
And that market is exploding, particularly for obesity drugs. The global market for obesity medicines reached $66 billion in 2025. Bloomberg predicts it will hit $120 billion by 2030.
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Yet Lilly’s share price is up 13.4% this year and 58% over the past 52 weeks, while Novo Nordisk shares are up just 0.4% this year and down 5% over the past 52 weeks. Since July 2024, Novo has plummeted 62%.
What explains the divergence, with Lilly soaring and Novo collapsing?
I would point to one number to explain it: market share in the obesity market, which is expected to grow faster than the diabetes drug market. The two drug companies collectively control about 87% of global prescription obesity drug revenue.
But Lilly is currently dominant in that market, with a majority 60% share, primarily driven by the popularity and efficacy of its Zepbound GLP-1 obesity drug.
That’s not to say things can’t change. Until recently, most GLP-1 drugs were delivered via injectables (i.e., needles). This spring, Novo Nordisk introduced its obesity drug Wegovy in pill form, and it’s off to a very fast start. As a result, the Danish firm revised its sales and profit forecasts higher.
So, stay tuned. The GLP-1 race is far from over, and both firms are committed to winning.
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