How Gulf Oil Is Escaping the Strait of Hormuz

Hormuz Peace Window Slams Shut. Iran threatened a “fully offensive” posture as Washington ruled out extending the lapsed Memorandum of Understanding signed June 17, although Axios reported that behind bellicose posturing US officials are still negotiating with Tehran via Iraqi mediators. 

China’s Refining Sector Crawls Off the Bottom. Chinese refinery runs jumped by 0.3% month-on-month in July to 12.5 million b/d—the first increase since the Iran war began—but remained 16% below last year levels as refiners drew an estimated 25–28 million barrels from domestic inventories.

Libya Puts a $40 Billion Price Tag on Its Oil Comeback. Libya’s National Oil Company says foreign investment of up to $40 billion is needed to lift production to 2 million b/d by the early 2030s, as international majors return despite persistent drone attacks and reoccurring protest closures.

Hormuz Oil Traffic Remains a Trickle. Just 6 commodity vessels crossed the strait on Monday, slightly up from Saturday’s three and Sunday’s two, with no VLCCs or LNG tankers visible as stalled US-Iran talks keep the Gulf’s main energy corridor effectively closed to large-scale shipping. 

Trump Threatens to Bomb Oman. The US President warned the Omani government against obstructing negotiations with Iran as the failed ceasefire’s 60-day deadline expired, even though Oman remains the only party reporting progress toward a new Hormuz shipping arrangement.

Washington Pushes Maxed-Out Refineries for More Fuel. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Trump administration would soon unveil measures to boost US refinery throughput as the average gasoline price exceeds $4.06 a gallon, even though US plants are already running at record rates.

China Keeps Its Tankers Clear of Hormuz. China’s shipping giants COSCO and CMES, previously carrying half of the country’s Middle Eastern crude imports, have stopped entering Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, redeploying their fleet of more than 100 VLCCs to collect Gulf barrels from Fujairah and Oman. 

Brazil Gets Hyped for Its Next Oil Frontier. Brazil’s state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) said crude recovered from its $300 million exploration well in the untapped Foz do Amazonas basin “looks very good”, seeking to expedite drilling as it already identified locations for the next 3 exploration wells.

US Diesel Cracks Smash Through $100. The US diesel crack soared to an all-time high of $102 per barrel, with middle distillate prices rising quicker than crude in 5 of the last 6 sessions as US distillate inventories fall to their lowest seasonal level since 1996 despite refiners maximizing diesel output.

Canada’s West Coast Pipeline Wins Producer Backing. EPAC members, representing more than 40% of Canadian oil output, have committed volumes to the proposed 1-million-b/d conduit as Ottawa considers fast-tracking the project to diversify exports beyond the US and pivot to Asian markets. 

Beijing Eyes a Bigger Gas Buffer. Beijing plans to lift natural gas storage above 13% of annual consumption and expand pipeline-import capacity to 114 Bcm per year by 2030, strengthening supply security after underground storage more than doubled to 54 Bcm between 2020 and 2025.

Aramco Starts Sneaking Crude Around Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is privately offering Arab Medium and Heavy cargoes through ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah, allowing Asian refiners to collect September cargoes without sending tankers into the strait as Riyadh adopts a bypass strategy.

Rhine Freight Retreats to Road and Rail. Navigable depth at Germany’s Kaub chokepoint on the River Rhine fell to a record low 9 cm, completely halting all navigation south of Frankfurt as freight is now being en masse transferred to land transport for fears of extremely shallow water.

Jazan Comes Under Fire Again. The Houthis claimed a 3rd drone attack in two weeks on Saudi Aramco’s 400,000 b/d Jizan refinery, already out of operations until at least September after earlier damage, pushing even more Saudi crude toward Mediterranean loading points as security risks soar.

Drone Attack on Greek Ship Revive Black Sea Risks. The Greek-operated Suezmax tanker Skiros was attacked after loading Russian-origin crude at the CPC Terminal, reviving operational risks at a terminal handling almost 2% of global supply and serving as Kazakhstan’s dominant export route.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

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