Indeed CEO says retiring boomers are a bigger threat to the economy than AI — and the worker shortage is already here

If it feels challenging to land a job right now, you’re not wrong. Many Americans may fear that AI will replace them at work, (1) but at the same time, it may also be taking longer and costing companies more to get new employees hired.

It comes down to who’s working and who isn’t — at least, according to Indeed CEO Hisayuki “Deko” Idekoba. He says that as a large share of the U.S. workforce is nearing retirement, there aren’t enough younger workers stepping in to replace them. The result isn’t a simple worker shortage. It’s a mismatch, where some jobs are crowded with applicants while others are sitting open.

He says this demographic shift is a bigger economic force than artificial intelligence right now. Over the next 15 years, the U.S. is projected to have roughly 20 million fewer workers, with about 80% of that decline driven by retirements rather than automation (2).

It’s a gradual change, but it could shape the job market for years to come.

The mismatch Idekoba describes isn’t evenly spread across the economy.

In many white-collar fields, hiring has cooled and competition for roles has picked up, especially in tech and other office-based jobs that expanded rapidly in recent years. At the same time, job openings remain elevated in sectors that rely on in-person, hands-on work.

Construction is one of the clearest examples. The industry will need to bring in roughly 350,000 additional workers to meet demand, according to Associated Builders and Contractors (3). Healthcare is facing a similar challenge, with federal projections from the Health Resources and Services Administration (4) pointing to significant shortfalls in nurses and other medical staff over the coming years.

At the same time, the workforce itself is getting older. About 1 in 4 U.S. workers is now 55 or older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau (5), a share that has been steadily rising as baby boomers approach retirement.

This combination helps explain why the labor market can feel contradictory right now. More people may be looking for work in some fields, while employers in others are struggling to hire — not because the jobs aren’t there, but because the workers aren’t.

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In theory, a cooling job market should make it easier to fill open roles. In practice, it’s not that straightforward.

A laid-off office worker can’t easily step into a role as an electrician, a nurse or a construction manager without significant retraining. That’s part of why economists and policymakers have been warning about slower labor force growth for years. The Congressional Budget Office (6) has projected that an aging population will weigh on the size of the workforce, even as demand for workers in certain sectors remains strong.

Other developed countries are facing similar pressures. Japan, which has one of the oldest populations in the world, has spent decades trying to offset workforce declines (7) by increasing participation among women and older workers. Even so, it continues to grapple with labor shortages in key industries.

For the U.S., there isn’t a single, quick fix. Training new workers takes time, immigration policy remains a factor in labor supply, and participation rates can only rise so far.

That’s why the shift Idekoba describes is likely to play out gradually. It won’t show up as one dramatic change, but as an ongoing imbalance, where some parts of the job market remain crowded while others struggle to keep up.

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CNBC (1); Business Insider (2); Associated Builders and Contractors (3); Health Resources and Services Administration (4); U.S. Census Bureau (5); Congressional Budget Office (6); World Economic Forum (7)

This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com under the title: Indeed CEO says retiring boomers are a bigger threat to the economy than AI — and the worker shortage is already here

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