Is CLMT a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Calumet, Inc. on Stock Forester Capital’s Substack by Stock Forester. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CLMT. Calumet, Inc.’s share was trading at $28.72 as of March 19th. CLMT’s trailing and forward P/E were 23.06 and 11.35 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets a slate of specialty branded products and renewable fuels in North America and internationally. CLMT has already delivered strong returns, with the stock up 38% year-to-date and 88% over the past year, yet the underlying thesis suggests further upside as the company approaches a major inflection point.
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While its FY2025 results were largely in line with expectations, the market reaction overlooked a materially improved business profile, driven not by margin expansion yet, but by a significantly strengthened balance sheet and operational execution. The company has aggressively refinanced its debt, eliminating near-term maturities in 2026 and 2027, extending its revolver to 2031, and reducing net recourse leverage from 8.2x to 4.9x, effectively removing the refinancing overhang that previously defined the equity narrative.
Operationally, the Specialties segment continues to demonstrate structural strength, sustaining margins above $60 per barrel alongside meaningful cost reductions, improved throughput, and lower capital intensity, indicating durable earnings power. Performance Brands has also shown resilience, delivering consistent growth despite divestitures.
Meanwhile, Montana Renewables remains the most volatile yet highest-upside segment, with temporarily weak results overshadowing structurally lower operating costs and a favorable regulatory outlook. The anticipated Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) increase is expected to lift renewable diesel margins meaningfully, while the company’s SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) strategy provides a clearer earnings pathway through contracted premiums of $1–$2 per gallon, offering both downside protection and visibility into future demand.
The market continues to undervalue Calumet by anchoring to its legacy perception as a leveraged specialty chemicals business with volatile renewables exposure, failing to recognize reduced downside risk, improved cost structure, and validated asset value. Based on updated assumptions across segments, the stock is estimated to be worth ~$35 today, with potential to exceed $55 as SAF ramps and margins normalize, implying substantial near-term upside despite identifiable risks around execution, regulation, and commodity volatility.
