Strategic Performance and Market Dynamics
Performance in Q1 was a ‘tale of two market environments,’ where early-quarter stability and strong mortgage demand were disrupted by the war in Iran, which spiked volatility and energy prices.
The negative 1.2% economic return was primarily driven by significant mortgage spread widening following renewed inflation fears and adjusted expectations for fewer interest rate cuts.
Management attributes the portfolio’s resilience to the maturity of the Non-QM market, which remained orderly and functional for securitizations despite heightened geopolitical tensions.
Strategic growth focused on adding approximately $700 million in Agency MBS and $471 million in Non-QM loans, leveraging what management views as attractive entry points during market volatility.
The company is utilizing a ‘re-lever’ strategy for seasoned securitizations, calling older deals to lower borrowing costs and unlock capital, which management describes as an underappreciated source of optionality.
A capital allocation pivot involves issuing preferred stock via an ATM to repurchase common shares at a discount, effectively retiring common equity without shrinking the total equity base.
Operational focus remains on resolving delinquent legacy multifamily loans, a process management describes as time-consuming but handled by a specialized in-house team with a decade of experience.
Outlook and Strategic Initiatives
Management expects Distributable Earnings (DE) to reconverge with the $0.36 common dividend by the end of 2026, driven by the redeployment of capital from resolved legacy assets into higher-yielding target assets.
Realized credit losses on the legacy transitional loan portfolio are expected to accelerate ‘meaningfully’ in Q2 2026 before normalizing in the latter half of the year and into 2027.
The Lima One pipeline is at its highest level since 2024, with growth expected to accelerate as the wholesale channel matures and multifamily lending is fully relaunched in the second half of the year.
Agency MBS exposure is viewed as a flexible liquidity source that may be wound down or sold to fund higher-conviction credit growth at Lima One or in the Non-QM space.
Expense reduction initiatives are projected to reach a run-rate of nearly $20 million in annual overhead savings compared to 2024 levels, aided by a corporate headquarters relocation.
Structural Changes and Risk Factors
Introduced a new supplemental metric, ‘Distributable Earnings prior to realized credit losses,’ to isolate the impact of legacy multifamily liquidations from the core portfolio’s earnings power.
The corporate headquarters relocation will result in $7.4 million of accelerated non-cash depreciation ($2.4 million in Q1; $5 million in Q2) but will yield $4 million in annual run-rate savings thereafter.
Delinquencies rose to 7.8% in the residential loan portfolio, almost entirely driven by the legacy multifamily book reaching maturity where borrowers are struggling to refinance in the current rate environment.
Management flagged that a single bad multifamily loan resolution can cause a $0.03 to $0.04 swing in quarterly DE, contributing to the difficulty in forecasting precise short-term earnings.
