June Nymex natural gas (NGM26) on Tuesday closed down -0.067 (-2.30%).
Nat-gas prices fell from a 6-week nearest-futures high on Tuesday and settled lower after the EIA raised its US 2026 nat-gas production estimate. Nat-gas prices initially moved up to a 6-week high on Tuesday amid forecasts for hotter US weather, which could potentially spark nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power increased air-conditioning usage. The Commodity Weather Group said Tuesday that forecasts shifted warmer, with above-average temperatures expected across the western half of the US through May 16.
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Projections for higher US nat-gas production are negative for prices. On Tuesday, the EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas production to 110.61 bcf/day from an April estimate of 109.60 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs posting a 2.5-year high in late February.
On April 17, nat-gas prices tumbled to a 1.5-year nearest-futures low amid robust US gas storage. EIA nat-gas inventories as of April 24 were +7.7% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling abundant US nat-gas supplies.
The outlook for the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed for the foreseeable future is supportive for nat-gas as the closure will curb Middle Eastern nat-gas supplies, potentially boosting US nat-gas exports to make up for the shortfall.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Tuesday was 108.6 bcf/day (+1.8% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Tuesday was 68 bcf/day (+10.0% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Tuesday were 17.5 bcf/day (+0.8% w/w), according to BNEF.
Nat-gas prices have some medium-term support on the outlook for tighter global LNG supplies. On March 19, Qatar reported “extensive damage” at the world’s largest natural gas export plant at Ras Laffan Industrial City. Qatar said the attacks by Iran damaged 17% of Ras Laffan’s LNG export capacity, a damage that will take three to five years to repair. The Ras Laffan plant accounts for about 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply, and a reduction in its capacity could boost US nat-gas exports. Also, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in Iran has sharply curtailed nat-gas supplies to Europe and Asia.
